Yatahay Network - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players


BB: 25 BB
Hero (BTN): 26.5 BB
SB: 23.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.5 BB, 2 players) J K 4
BB checks, Hero bets 3.35 BB, BB calls 3.35 BB

Turn: (11.2 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets 8.3 BB, BB calls 8.3 BB

River: (27.8 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 11.35 BB and is all-in,


Played on $5 games on ACR. 33 hands on Villain no real reads, other than as I recall he's from an EE country and based on my experience they tend to be more reggy just generally speaking but that's a big generalization so not putting too much weight on that.

I'm betting big flop/turn for obvious reasons, unblocking calls and on this board the calling range is static. Given the sizes it seems to me that in theory he shouldn't get to the river with many Jx combos although maybe he's just a calling station; we block AT, although he's likely 3BS that pre.

Seems like a clear fold, as I just don't see this line getting bluffed anywhere near enough, and his bluffs would need to be exactly QT type of hands which isn't impossible but, again, just super unlikely.


Any thoughts from anyone?

The turn bet is close to 40% of your remaining stack. I would prefer to shove than bet 40% of my stack.

Personally I would check the turn and call a river bet unless it was a shove at which point I'd have to consider folding.

I'm not suggesting my bet size there is optimal but I don't quite follow why you'd prefer open shoving OTT than the size I picked. Vs a shove Villain might even make some hero folds with some of his Kx whereas he's unlikely to ever fold this a "normal" size, and we leave ourselves a ~40% bet OTR which again I don't see most regs folding TP in a readless situation, let alone an opponent who may well be a rec.

Basically I'm shoving every river other than a K and perhaps a 9, so I'm not really worried about betting a big portion of my stack OTT; additionally I expect to face a donk shove OTR like <5% of the time, and that may be a conservative estimate. Obviously it happened this time and it's just unfortunate, but I don't see bluffs. It could have been a mistake if V donk shoves river with KQ, but again I assume that he'll check almost always.


Having said all that I didn't really consider checking turn in-game, which thinking about it now I think would be a good play. Calling a big river probe and even potentially raising it on some rivers.

If villain would be folding his Kx on the turn, then you could be printing money by always shoving all your Tx here. Villain shouldn't be calling 3rd pair on the turn vs big size, so his river donkbet shove mostly looks like weaker Kx with weaker kicker, so he maybe thinks to push you from your weaker Kx from chop or get call from your Qx.

that cbet sizing OTF is standard here? is it slightly bigger to extract value from villain's Jx/Kx? i'm probably betting smaller here and wondering if i'm not making mistakes in spots like this

Definitely not my standard size OTF but this was a readless situation and in those I'll sometimes take a clear exploitative sizing. OTF I'm assuming that his calling range is fairly static, I don't expect lots of floats and weak calls would only call a small bet and likely fold to most turn barrels so yes I'm targeting Kx and Jx plus his QT tight of hands and if Villain is a rec (haven't seen this player since this hand so somewhat safe to assume they are) he likely will be overcalling draws. Basically just trying to get max value from his from a narrow range that I'm well ahead of.

If you're asking about sizing from a theory perspective, I haven't ran this in solver but I would strongly assume that we get to employ a larger sizing as we have a clear range advantage. But that's not at all the thinking I would use when readless.

This hand happened a couple of weeks ago but I do recall thinking in game about what you describe, i.e. Villain donk shoving some Kx himself. But just from my experience facing these types of plays on boards where Villain can't really be bluffing nor should he really be bluffing usually means that it's value.

Also I think you underestimate how much Jx villain has on river; sure he should presumably be folding hands like J6s OTT but he gets there with all JT combos I would assume plus some J9 combos not to mention QJ which I think would slow play the turn a lot.


Obviously I'm making a lot of assumptions, but I just think we're running into trips, straights and even full houses a little too often compared to how often he is shoving Kx trying to get us off a chop, or the times he has the super rare donk bluff shove.

Wouldn't surprise me if it's quite close though.

The river sink bet is certainly for value - the question is whether it’s a value own…

Given that you are getting like 3.3:1, or like 30% pot odds, I can’t see folding. Too many players overplaying top pair with weak kicker for me to fold. I think there are enough Kx hands to balance the few times he will show up with Jx here.

Is a min raise the standard open here? 25bb deep I am going 2.5 or, at minimum 2.2.