sorry but 3rd hand, so no reads. stats look not so good over a meaningless sample, so presumably a weekend/recreational type player.

i'd appreciate flop/turn ideas if anyone plays it differently, but i'm mostly curious about two possible river scenarios...

Full Tilt Poker $88 + $4 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BB: t1455 48.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1545 51.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with A Q
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30

Flop: (t120) Q 4 7 (2 players)
BB bets t30, Hero raises to t120, BB calls t90

Turn: (t360) J (2 players)
BB bets t30, Hero raises to t360, BB calls t330

River: (t1080) 8 (2 players)
1) BB bets t150
2) BB bets t915 all in

Flop/Turn look good!

Err river is ****ty but the river betsize will actually give you a really good indication of his range. His range is really wide on the flop (even as weak as in between cards) and some of these random floats will hit the turn; hands like JT for example.

In saying that I don't really expect him to bet big with any of them on the river... When he bets t150 on the river I expect him to have a reasonable amount of SD value but some if this range will also have hit the river. Pretty close between raising for value and flatting.

When he jams I expect him to have you beat almost always. There are no draws that can possibly be bluffing now, and if he does have SD value (one pair hands) then I don't expect him to turn them into a bluff and jam here. Pretty clear fold I think.

PS: I havent forgotten that I owe you an hour either! just hit me up whenever and we can sort it!

Call either. This was what you were hoping for when you raised the turn... right?

ehm his range changes significantly when he jams river imo. ducy?

didnt think it was but river looks a jam in A and i always fold B

yep.

call A, fold B

Yeah, it makes me all that more confident I'm not beat. Who plays a hand minbet-call, minbet-call, jam as a value line?

Thanks for the responses guys.

I agree that it's a fold if he jams river. Re: dies irae, I'm not really hoping to get it in on the turn. If he did shove turn, I'm probably not getting away from it vs an unknown at 2am on a Sat. night, but I think it'd be a fold vs a known reasonable opponent.

In game he tanked river for like a full 20 seconds and led for the 150, and I just snap called because I was so relieved he didn't jam . However, I'm not sure if a jam is better. I think it's close... people do take this line to induce...

the guy who rivers some **** usually

What hands do you think play this way? Really hard for him to have total air/no showdown after calling 2 big bets and the main flop draw got there on the river.

my problem with jam is that our hand looks so strong so not sure what we're getting called by that we beat and it quite possibly hinges a lot on how much worse Qx he has here. I think he can still def bet smaller with better hands so i tend to think its really close but i still prefer flatting.

pretty interesting hand. tbh in both cases I'd be like wtf...

in hand A I'd probably flat as I'm not sure what worse hands he would call my raise with
in hand B, I would seriously considering calling but then would probably fold b/c I'm a pussy!

but here's an interesting topic, what would be the worse type of hand that you would have that would call his jam here? would you fold 2 pair? a set? straights even?

i really like mjw's posts. always coherent and lucid.

but then again, when the dude double minidonkbets like that, hes screaming:
"im a fish, take me to valuetown. weeeeeee!"!

so i end up shoving and getting owned

i agree with matthew. i'm unsure whether the river is too thin when he leads for 150. we'd need one of two things to happen for shoving to be good, either he needs to have Qx (or just a strong enough hand to bet/call the river which may be JT for some people) in his range for taking this flop/turn line, but given how weak i expect that flop play to be i'm not sold that he has it very often. secondly, we need his river lead of 150 to rarely indicate a hand that beats ours, which we also don't know. certainly 56 and occasionally T9/J8 are part of his range, as well as 78.

we could essentially min-raise his river blocker bet--these fish rarely if ever bluff jam but we get better value for our hand. thoughts?