I was reviewing a game with a friend when I saw this hand :

He folded 86ss on the bb (15-30 lvl from a PS reg speed) to a 160 chips shove.

Info on the opponent : he was clearly tight on the shoves, since he folded some buttons with 8-12 bb, and folded to my friend's shoves with same stack.

Anyway, I said it doesn't really depend on villain and you have to shove almost any 2 cards when the guy has 5-6bb and you have the button, and I also said you have to fistpump call with 86ss (but I played more turbo than reg speed, so I tend to call and shove any two with these stacks).

My friend agreed we have to call, but said he might be closer to a fold than I thought.

So what's your opinion (and why?)
-Fistpump call?
-Close call
-We can find a fold here

And what if you had button, reg speed, the guy has 10bb on the same level and you have 68ss?

Cheers

You have just under 54% equity vs. a random hand, so estimate his shoving range and apply with pot odds to get your answer... Remember that a wrong call (based on estimating too loose) is worse than a bad fold (based on estimating too tight) in general, so if it's super close/marginal usually lean towards a fold

letmenashthatforyou.link

it's close

Villian's shoving range in this spot:

tightest + loosest(any 2) / 2

Then calculate your chance to win vs that summarized range.

Your edge vs villian can also influence your decision.

Thanks for answers

Just to be sure, and since It's almost the first time I use pokerstove
-Let's assume we are playing a guy who shoves any 2 with these stack (someone like me ). Our equity is 46% vs any 2 and here 130 to call/ 320 = 40.6% so we have to call
-Let's say we think he shoves only 80% of his pf range, our equity is now 42% so it's a close call, but if we think he shoves less than that we can find a fold right?

Is this a general formula ?

Here I can't be sure he is shoving any 2 (he folded some buttons/folded to some shoves too...) even with this stack. But then I wouldn't mind playing the shove vs AK or something like that, because I know he'll fold a lot and I'll probably grind him again if he doubles up. I guess it's a bad play then (?)

NASH is a very good approximation for these type of decisions this short, even given some leeway with opponent type. It's 5.6bb for this particular hand.

Just wondering, in game, do you have to try and estimate the equity, and make your move accordingly? Or do most people actually learn equity vs random hands etc etc, over time?

eh, if you have pokerstove, in that kind of situation it's easy to check. But if you check that kind of equities when in-game and/or when you review your sessions after often, you'll remember them or be able to estimate them more accurately.

edit: even reading the forum where people post ranges they stoved or strat post where people show the exact equities of hands in certain situations will help you estimate your average equity in game faster and more precisely.

Normally I would snap off here, but seeing as though our opponent doesnt appear that competent and or familiar with Nash,, its pretty clear we are behind here and should fold and shove the next hand with any 2 cards. If hes "tight" at worst hes shoving a 40ish% range here:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,417,758,784 games 2.859 secs 1,195,438,539 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.283% 61.59% 00.69% 2105127404 23563296.00 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 37.717% 37.03% 00.69% 1265504788 23563296.00 { 86s }


---

i don't know about all of you... but if the blinds are 15/30 and i'm sitting on the bb with 30 already committed, and the guys shoves for 160 totals I'm calling with almost any two cards. I only need to call 130 and get this match over with if he's shoving the top of his range. so it's about a 40/60 most of the time.

Is calling here for 130 with about 40% equity a leak?

Its really very close - its an extremely marginal situation. Calling here vs a tight shover, if its a leak, its a really small one. Maybe a drip?

I just hate to double up a tight opponent in an EV neutral (or close to) situation.

He probably going to not call loosely enough when we shove the next 3-4 hands, my feeling is, so why not just pass here and grind him down?

By calling we dont allow ourselves to make an error (if it is an error to call, its very small), but we dont allow him to commit an error either. Hes played his hand properly.

If we pass, we give him more chances to make a mistake by not calling our shoves loosely enough over the next 4-5 hands.

Sure calling is probably EV neutral and if we win, the tournament is over, but if we lose he will have 11bbs which gives him some time to fold a few hands before he makes his move. If we fold 86s here, hes still in desperation mode and in my opinion more likely to commit an error with a small stack which tight players often try to cling to rather than just gamble with.

As I said in my 1st post, vs a tight/solid player here I would pass and shove any 2 cards the very next hand.

I fold and it's not really that close vs a tightish shover; if villain is playing close to Nash he'll be jamming a shitton of hands and if he folded 4-5 btns in a row when stax got <12bb deep he's more likely to be jamming a tighter range. also this has nothing to do w $EV vs cEV, it's just a suboptimal move to call Nash when villain is not shoving Nash

My thoughts as well.
If he's indeed too tight, his stack will be melted away in the next couple of hands anyway.

First of all, Thanks everyone for your detailed answers.

It seems that my call here is a small leak, but from what you said my biggest leak here is to think that doubling him up is not that bad since I'll shove almost any 2 after that and grind some blinds again, where the correct use of the "I'll shove any 2" argument is to fold the bb and to grind it again next hand with any 2.


Corrected a bit the range here (added 22/33 and A2o because I don't see anyone folding for 5,6 bb with those hands) and here is what we find (it's still a fold):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.270% 37.58% 00.69% 1346211520 24677040.00 { 86s }
Hand 1: 61.730% 61.04% 00.69% 2186574368 24677040.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }


It's one of the situations where it's a close fold or a close call, really depending on the range we think he is shoving, which is hard to evaluate considering he could just have been unlucky the 2 or 3 buttons he folded

You lose money, if you get it in behind against his range. Who is winning or losin the match doesnt matter really.