Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeeyay
This decision obviously depends on whether you're readless or else based on actual reads you have on villain.
The major problem is that right now since you gave just aggregate stats and not stack based they don't give us a great amount of confidence in using our hud stats as they appear while we're short stacked.
That's not to say we can't use them to help us though in making a guesstimate just based on population tendencies. For example: he likely 3b less than most players and flats more than most players with a small degree of confidence. That means his actual frequencies at 11bb and around this depth will probably look vaguely like: 3b 25%, flat 35%.
Now, given these stats at this depth we can actually start putting him on some likely ranges and it would lead me to minr/calling.
This is because I anticipate villain will be calling open shoves wider than 25% (both because he flats a decent amount and because the population mostly calls wider than 25%). This will means that he will likely be flatting some hands he would have called an open shove with. It is unlikely that he will be playing optimally post flop oop. This will mean that I'd rather gii vs a tighter range and get to play some hands post that would have called a shove (ex: K5o) because I'm confident Q9s will have enough playability and I'll be solid enough to push my positional edge vs our likely weak opponent.
If we feel less comfortable vs his flatting range or we think he's nitty vs open shoves (ex: folds A2o vs a shove) then Q9s will likely be best shoved. Shoving is likely a close second choice--a good reason to open shove will be that villain 3b more often than the population but not enough to want to actually induce wide hands
(ex: we don't want to induce K2o by minr if it would have folded to an open shove; so if we're not inducing a good amount of weak Qx and 9x hands on top of these K2o type hands then we worry that too often we will be inducing is hands like K2o and we'll want to open shove instead of minr/calling)
So yeah, wp OP. As played after minr, i play it the same as well there is no reason to 4b jam and on flop we have a clear fold vs an overbet. Notice that this good circumstantial confirmation that our expectation vs flatting range will likely be good as well (given that he open shoves a dry flop after min 3b pre)
quiet interesting and deep explanation. thanks
of course it is hard to get exact stats for this stack depth, but sure would be more helpful, just wanted to give a relative villains image, will try to get better description next time.