Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctorqt
A pair (55 in this case) has like 55-45% vs two overcards if i'm correct.
This means that he's likely to call with (for example) good aces (A8+) wich means you have make money on the long run because you have are ahead if i'm not mistaken?
well, when you get called, you arent gonna like crush his range or anything. the most value comes from him folding so often.
actually, the shove is ev+ against any calling range (assuming he isnt the biggest nit in the world with his openings).
Lets say he opens 40% of all hands preflop:
If he only calls your shove with hands that are better than 55 (or have good enough pot odds to call), he is folding so often that you are making money (dont forget: even when you get called, you still have a lot of equity and are gonna win at showdown a decent amount)
If he lets say calls with all 40% of hands, than you have more than 50% equity against that, so you gain value again.
And all calling ranges in between are gonna be EV+ for you too.
[btw: EV=f*(chips in the pot)+(1-f)*(p*(extra chips if you go AI and win; compared to folding)-(1-p)*(minus chips if you go AI and lose; compared to folding))... where f=fold equity and p=pot equity]
Try to play with PokerStove or Equilab by yourself A LOT, its the best way to learn and really understand all this.