PokerStars - 10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players

Hero (BB): 26 BB
SB: 24 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 6

SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 6 K 2
Hero checks, SB bets 3.05 BB

Turn: (12.1 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, SB checks

River: (12.1 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, SB bets 8.05 BB

What do you do in these spots where a readless rec bets big on a blank river after checking turn on a drawy board?

Pretty sure I'm usually stationing here.

Pretty sure everyone else who posts in this thread will say it's a fold.

Im not sure how can you call this, this is a fold versus gto opponent, which has balanced ranges and good amount of air in his range, even regs have trouble bluffing with this line.
I dont know what population tendencies are, but hard to believe that fish overbluffs here.
He reps Kx, 88-QQ pretty well + people will bet good amount of 7x, not even talking about 3x pre which makes sb range even stronger.
Only thing that can make this a call if we are confident SB barrels all Kx, but I can see fish checking Kx because flush came in
So in the end imo we are making at best indifferent call

Yep.


Yep.

If you mean something like "they don't bluff more than gto does," then I agree with that. But I also don't think he's stronger than gto is when he bets.

Nope. Actually didn't notice the pre 3x though, that may make this a fold. But in a mr pot, this is where I disagree with you.

This is part of it.

Maybe, but I don't think so. Edit: in a 3x pre pot, I think you're right. In a mr pot, I'm not so sure.

I think a bunch of weird **** about what fish do, though.

If he's a rec its already pretty unlikely that he cbets with air. When the turn comes 3flush they are almost always being scared of hero getting to the flush. Makes kinda sense to me to see alot of these guys not bothering to protect their tp. If he doesn't see you betting he figures his pair might be good.
I think you're beat here way too often. Can't really see a rec playing their AJ, AQ like this, which is necessary in order for him to have bluffs on the river.

such a clear fold dunc, even in mr pot, given his sizing and line. Check your river call efficiency, are you sure you're "on to the fish" and not just justifying a calling station leak?

Looking at my PS $15s this year (so, 99% fish games) I have 1.85 river call efficiency over about 2400 games. I don't know what a "good" or "standard" rce is (I got super into this stat about 9 months back and then pretty much gave up on it for a few reasons), but I think mine might be .2 or .3 lower than a lot of regs if I'm remembering correctly. I don't think this is a problem, though. I suspect that the nut river call efficiency would be somewhere around 1.7, but I don't really have a justification for that. It's super obvious that higher rce != better, though.

For what it's worth, my evroi is 5.7% over that sample. That can't be used in a vacuum to justify this call, but I do think it gives me personal reason to endorse what I'm doing/what my pop reads are. I do think I'm a ridiculous station, I just also think pretty much everyone in husngs is wrong about how fish tend to play. Fwiw, I have some strong reservations about the aggregate pop analysis you tend to advocate (mainly an extension of the idea that 1 villain playing 100/100 and 1 villain playing 0/0 aggregate to pop tends of 50/50 in db), though I do want to do some more db work myself.

Simply put, I don't see too many value combos played like this and I think fish could be bluffing here more than the 28% of the time needed to call. I don't think we're good 50% of the time, but I do think we may be good >30% of the time (in a mr pot).

I'm pretty convinced that this spot mr is somewhat close, mainly because I don't think fish are playing much thin value like this. If you think they have a ton of weak Kx here and are possibly thinly betting some 7s or whatever, then yeah obviously this call becomes terrible. I just don't think their range looks like that.

Interesting stat that I was not even aware of. What's a good river call efficiency number to suggest I'm on the right track? In the range of 2.0?

Also, if we fold here, do we even have a check-call range on the river here?

I would fold it pre.

As played fold river. I am not a station and I carefully choose spots where I can get some value.

And it is very easy to overcall/overfold on the river, haha. I was struggling with both extremes. Now it should be fine

But from time to time you have to make those calls which you think are losing. Cause population tendencies evolve as well.

And also - take into consideration reads on the players.