$7 hyper - double barrel probing missed open ender - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$7 hyper - double barrel probing missed open ender

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07-27-2016 , 04:08 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Not a great river card to continue on, but should we still bet here?
We can fold out missed diamond flush draws, 3x, some gutshots, and maybe some A/K high. Is that enough to make it profitable? What size would you use? 1/2 pot?

PokerStars - $6.85+$0.15|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 25 BB
Hero (BB): 25 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8

SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 3

Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: (2 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero bets 1.5 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB

River: (5 BB, 2 players) 2

[color=red]Hero ?

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07-29-2016 , 12:29 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Anyone?

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07-29-2016 , 03:49 PM

grinder4all

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 1,792

Bet big, you've got one of the best bluffing hands here.

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07-29-2016 , 04:23 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by grinder4all

Bet big, you've got one of the best bluffing hands here.

Betting big to try and make 7x fold? (since we don't have to worry too much about betting big into straights and flushes because we block them).

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07-29-2016 , 06:34 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

I'm asking because we can fold out 3x, missed draws and A/K high with a 1/2 pot bet as well, so the only reason to go bigger is to target weak 7x right?

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07-29-2016 , 07:57 PM

dayancaaf

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 122

Quote:

Originally Posted by obbudsman

I'm asking because we can fold out 3x, missed draws and A/K high with a 1/2 pot bet as well, so the only reason to go bigger is to target weak 7x right?

I would lead the flop. Untill vilains adjust I lead limped pots like a mother f### (super exploitable IF they adjust).
As played I would bet small on the river, to represent thin value with a 7 or even a 6. If he is folding a 3 there kind of doesnt really matter your sizzing as it is pretty much a bluff catcher. A big bet there rep flushs (not even str8 as u probably would lead them on the flop) and pollarizes your range in my perspective. A smallish bet 40%-50% would do the job of folding air or even a hero fold of 3x, 2x. Also its a pretty small riskxreward compared to potbet, it only has to work 1/3 of the time.

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07-30-2016 , 02:58 PM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

Quote:

Originally Posted by obbudsman

I'm asking because we can fold out 3x, missed draws and A/K high with a 1/2 pot bet as well, so the only reason to go bigger is to target weak 7x right?

As someone said to you before, you really overestimate fold equity vs fish, Id say bet big to fold out 6x, I doubt 7x is folding even vs big sizing, there will be plenty people snapping overbet with any pair here.
Id just pot it otr, or small overbet

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07-30-2016 , 04:23 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by none888

Yeah I guess I do overestimate fold equity sometimes. But if fish hero-call so often, I don't understand why to bet large here. A large part of his range is already folding to a bet of around 55% pot (missed draws, high cards, most 3x), so why bet large to try and fold out 6x (which isn't that large a part of his range) while 6x is hero-calling so often? Seems like a bad risk-reward to me.

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07-31-2016 , 09:13 AM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

you can bet big or small, both fine and + ev bluffs, but Id go big with this hand, really good blockers

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08-01-2016 , 06:50 AM

#10

grinder4all

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 1,792

You bet big because you'd bet big with a flush.

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