I recently started doing analysis of my own game, and it turned out that I am losing more than 1bb/hand with KJs over ~130 hands.
I started looking through the hands and came to this one.

We have 50 hands on villain with him having a 3bet stat of 25%.
Sample is almost useless, but I think we can estimate that he is not a very tight 3bettor.


By default, do we call pre or just 4bet shove?
Do we call flop with the OESD, BD flush and overcard to TP?

I know that ~130 hands are quite a small sample for me to think that KJs is a losing hand from SB, but ... I may be playing it wrong after all.

Thoughts on hand please.

I think kjs plays too well to 4bs. plus we're gonna be doing terribly against a sane stack off range. so i'm gonna kneejerk flat against the stats you've mentioned.

I think at maybe a 40% 3bet over the same sample size i'd think about 4bs.


As played, I think villain's line turns his hand face up. I think this line is ace+broadway that didn't make a pair almost always and the rest of the time it's a PP below a T. So either our J or our K is a clean out. Which means we have odds to call.


So wp imo

agree on the first part about flatting the 3b
but i think it's a clear fold given the range u composed, we are very crushed by AJ/AK type hands and are not getting the right odds at all
i think u can also leave out some pairs (most will just ship right away) and might add some flushdraws, especially when they are A high draws, our equity becomes very poor here

After putting in a range of 88+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo for villain in pokerstove - we still have 39,22% equity which is enough to call (we need 38%).
If I remove 88 and 99 (so range is TT+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo) the equity changes to 37,875%, meaning that calling vs the tightest of ranges is only a VERY slight mistake. If you add even one more hand to the range of villain, calling is good.

Still, my hesitation was mostly about call or ship pre.

imo, call is much better, because opponent will spaz a lot of times and that is where you gain your biggest edge

ok wow, I got the odds wrong, you are right.


also, I play the 7$ games and I strongly stand by my read that this line is massively weighted toward big unpaired Ax

I have played from 3,5s to 30s (now back at the 3,5s after a swong) and I too believe this is an unpaired ace most of the time.
However, if you look at my post above, even if we give villain nutted range, we still have the odds to call.

your range is off though wisher, you've neglected a tonne of diamond draws which is gunna make up a significant part of their range.

Thanks for that. Yeah, diamond draws actually reduce my effective outs so I guess this might really turn into a fold.
What kind of range would you put the opponent on?
I really see your point for adding a lot of hands into opponents range since any Ahigh diamond draw is having me beat. However that is not the case for K high draws which our opponent should do the same with.

you might have done this correctly, but with the information you give we cannot conclude anything. at what stacksize and in which position is your EV -1bb/hand? is it an overall value? from the smallblind? only deepstacked? this is important information, you have to filter as precisely as possible to make any kind of reasonable adjustment in your play.

furthermore, your analysis of the postflop situation has to be much more detailled. for example villain will almost never jam a flopped set and the frequency with which he just openjams an overpair or top pair is much lower than with a draw or Tx type holding.

130 hands is no sample, 2 coolers and your winreate is allmost twice better or worse

Thanks ohly!
Can't remember the exact filter I did yesterday, but currently looking at stacks between 20 and 25bb effective when I'm the SB, and KJs is -67bb/100 hands over 103 hands, KJo is -55bb/100hands over 300 hands, KTs is -44bb/100 hands over 86 hands.
This kind of really makes me question if I am playing K highs good enough (looking at other K high hands ... I think the problem is obvious).

With regards to the more detailed flop decision analysis - I don't think that people at 7s are not prone into spazzing with the nuts as much as with air (I think that AJ on this board is pretty much air).
However, your remarks about people not doing this with a nutted range actually works towards making calling the better option.

Just had a look at my stats when calling 3bets 20-25bb deep and it seems I'm doing terrible in 3bet pots (-108bb/100 over 1016 hands).
Can someone just crosscheck their database for the same and see if they are losing or winning?

I understand that, but that's the sample I have and I have to use it. That's why I'm going over big losing/winning hands in that sample to see if those are played correctly or not.