Hey guys i'm interested in what you think about every street here. I raise the flop small to get thin value from villains draws and random hands he decides to float. Don't think he has too many weaker pairs as I have seen him ck/call 47 on AK4(Don't have any solid reads other than this). On the river I think he has me beat most of the time; his small bet seems really scary and he could definitely turned a 7 or have a monster. Thoughts?

This is a fold imo. Not a lot of hands you beat and also him calling your c/r on flop, don't think he is doing this with air.

your line makes no sense.
how often he donks the flop and with what hands?

I would call the donkbet and see what he does on the turn.

I like your raise to his ridi-donk. But I see an easy cbet on turn when you connect a monster. The villian is clearly a fish so he's doing that with any type of hand.
The river is an easy call because when a fish makes this sizing is a sign of weakness mayority of times or a blocking bet. Apart from that, he is giving you a great odds of 20%.

Not sure what hes donking with like I said I don't think theres too many weaker pairs however I think he has a ton of draws/random hands/some strong hands here which is why I raise for value. IMO this is better than just calling and letting him realize his equity with his wide range.

I really don't see much of a reason to bet the turn. We don't get value from many hands and the 7 helps his range out a lot. The only reason I could see betting the turn is if we intend to barrel him off a 7(optimistic?) or a better 6 on good rivers.

Thanks for the replies.

You have gs+fd+middle pair, you want a big pot on river. And with this bet you are buying a probably free showdown if you want to check behind river.

+1 bet turn 60-70 to keep initiative and build the pot for when you hit. I can see him leading 4x on the flop even though he has taken another line on AK4.

I used a range of 62% VPIP
Board: 64J*7*2
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****61.62%**61.47%***0.15%*{ 8s6s }
BB*****38.38%**38.23%***0.15%*{ 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o ]

You can fine tune it by narrowing down his range on each street, based on his action.

For exemple, you will rarely see someone call with JJ preflop but it's included in {22+}.

Give this a try: see how is range is shaped preflop, then on the flop when he min-leads, then on the turn when he checks and finaly on the river when he bets.

Really good points that I didn't think of, after thinking about it more I'm definitely convinced betting the turn is better.

Thanks for suggestion.

I now used a range of 48,87% which is my guess of his range preflop.



Board: 64J*7*2
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****59.35%**59.15%***0.20%*{ 8s6s }
BB*****40.65%**40.45%***0.20%*{ A7s-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q3s+, J4s+, T5s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A7o-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 87o }

Good start! I'll let others chime in as far as the preflop range is concerned as I don't play hypers and have no idea if the average player shoves A2-A7 pre-flop (I assume a lot do?) and 3bets KJs/KQo-type hands.

Now you want to narrow down the range further when he donks 20 into 80. He probably doesn't donk with everything he has. It's going to be a weak hand or a draw very often: 4x, 6x, 57, 78, and we can include some one-pair Jx too, like J5s, J7s-JTs, J7o-JTo,

It's a good flop to lead as a bluff/backdoor draw but I don't think they would lead so small if they wanted you to fold.

Compare his new range vs your hand on this flop. Ignore the turn and river; when you're playing you don't know what run-out you'll get. See how you fare vs his range and what seems like the best option. (I like the flop raise personally).

You then raise the flop and he calls. Given the range I assigned above, with little air and your small raise (it's for thin value after all), he's going to call with pretty much everything he had when he donked.

Do the same exercise on the turn. What are the pros and cons of checking vs betting X or Y amount? If you bet and he raises, what's his range? If he calls, what's his range? etc. etc.

Hope this helps!

i like raising his flop donk. In my experience rec players do that here with many worse hands than OP's. the turn is really really interesting tho. if he's donking 35, 57, 58 or 78 he now beats us, so it seems we should check back to realize equity. we could get c/r'ed off our equity if we bet turn if he has 35 or 58, and also his two-pair hands. however there's a good chunk of his range we're still ahead of, and also a good chunk that beats us but is never gonna c/r. betting turn also has the advantage of making our river decision easier, since if we c/ back turn we won't know where we're at as easily if he leads river.

the last thing i wonder about is this: suppose we bet half pot turn, do we call if he shoves. I'm terrible at math, but tell me if this is right: on turn pot is 180. hero bets half pot puts pot at 270, villain calls puts pot at 360, at which point villain has 280 behind, which he shoves into the pot, thus bringing it to 640. so hero has to call 280 to win 640.
so he's getting about 2.3/1.

now assuming hero is behind on turn and needs a 6, spade or 5 (maybe an 8 as well) his equity is around 25% (right?). and if that's the case he needs 3/1 (right? i suck at math so correct me if wrong) well his odds are not quite that good. but once we consider that sometimes villain is shoving worse hands like a pair of 4's w/ str8 draw, then hero is getting right odds to call turn c/shove. and lastly, if that is indeed the case, he doesnt need to worry about getting c/r'd off his equity, since it's fine to call. therefore it's better to bet turn then check back.

If i'm off in the numbers feel free to school me. It's one of the worst parts of my game.

I now did a range of guessing his range on the flop. Basically without much air. Suggestions and comments on that range are welcome.



Board: 64J
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****50.35%**47.68%***2.67%*{ 8s6s }
BB*****49.65%**46.98%***2.67%*{ K6s, K4s, Q6s, Q4s, J5s+, T6s, 96s, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, K4o, Q6o, Q4o, J6o+, T8o+, T6o, 98o, 96o, 87o }

IMO it's incorrect to think that a fish is going to play in a logical way. In that spot he can have any random hand.

Yeah I agree with you to some point, we could make somewhat accurate guess of his range if we knew exactly his flat to minraise range and then his lead on the flop,etc.
I would still bet turn 50-60 so we keep initiative and if he calls we are beat most of the time and I'm not calling a shove either. IMO it's not good to check back turn, because he will bet river with any 2 after your check if he is a fish. If he donked with 35, 57, 58 or 78 it has us beat now. I'm not sure about river, because I don't know his range. It is a sign of weakness imo, but it could be for value too. I think folding is better readless, but clearly he is a fish so call and write down with what hand he was doing that.

Board: 64J*7*2
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****37.72%**37.13%***0.60%*{ 8s6s }
BB*****62.28%**61.68%***0.60%*{ K6s, K4s, Q6s, Q4s, J5s+, T6s, 96s, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, K4o, Q6o, Q4o, J6o+, T8o+, T6o, 98o, 96o, 87o }

As played I think it's just a really clear bluffcatch. Call.

Flop decision is difficult, though. You're actually crushed by his value range cause of your bad kicker, but there's still a load of air in his range that will be mostly overs making it hard for you on later streets. I think your raise is good for this reason.

Barrel turn because of the billions of equity you just got and the fact that river will be so easy for you to play