Hey guys,

First hand against unknown. Should i shove for value OTR or checkback.
Hero is ahead of any pair, but the way he played i was afraid of a 5. I think any pocket pair is raising pre (maybe not AA or KK) and 2 pairs are shoving the turn given the draws.


PokerStars - $6.85+$0.15|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 500
BB: 500

Hero posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has K A

Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80, 2 players) A J 5
BB checks, Hero bets 40, BB calls 40

Turn: (160, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 100, BB calls 100

River: (360, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 320 and is all-in, BB calls 320 and is all-in

You played the hand fine, so I wont really discuss that. Where our opinions probably differ is your range dissection.

• I think hero is not always ahead of any pair, by far. An unknown does not always have better here.
• Afraid of a 5: people that hit often valuebet themselves, so given that probably not that many 5's get to the river, once that board pairs its even less unlikely he hit his 5. He does not bet it himself so that confirms that he does not have a 5.
• pocket pairs raising pre: correct, but I think most pocket pairs are shoving pre.
• two pairs shove turn: I agree

Does that make sense ?

So I *think* this is a kinda cool runout where you actually *don't* need to be worried about the 5 precisely because of the flush. And you also don't need to be worried about the flush because of the 5.

How does villain call a naked 5 OTT without a flushdraw? I really can't see this being an okay call with K5 or Q5. So when the 5 comes 5s it means he can't have had a 5 and a FD on the turn. (I think this logic is okay against a good player. Since you included the outcome it is evident that this villain is *not* a good player, but I guess we were readless at the time of the hand)

Because the Js was out on the flop it's also kinda hard to backdoor a FD without having had KsQs or Asxs or maybe QsTs. So those are hands we need to be worried about.


Overall I think villain's range is at least 70% Ax, Jx on river. So you just have to ask if villain will call these to a jam. I don't think Jx should ever call a jam here, but there'll always be some spazz. And the Ax almost always calls. I think it's thin, but a valuejam is +EV here, imo

Thanks guys.

Makes a lot of sense.

Good post ferris. But worth considering that a fair amount of villain's Ax doesn't just flat pre and could very well consider raising turns. Probably enough of the time randoms at 7s will show up with Jx/weaker Ax here to make it worthwhile, if villain shows up with a 5 then take a note and rematch, if villain shows up with a flush then take a note as well

I actually think villain's call with a J is not bad at all, though it seems possible given he's an unknown $7 player that it was "I have a pair, call" as opposed to any decent thought process.