PokerStars - €57.67+€2.33|20/40 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 1,270.00
BB: 1,730.00

Hero posts SB 20.00, BB posts BB 40.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 60.00) Hero has J 8

Hero raises to 80.00, BB raises to 120.00, Hero calls 40.00

Flop: (240.00, 2 players) K 3 J
BB checks, Hero bets 120.00, BB calls 120.00

Turn: (480.00, 2 players) 3
BB bets 160.00, Hero calls 160.00

River: (800.00, 2 players) 3
BB checks, [color=red]Hero ?????

I am allways not sure what reads should i give along the hand. Villain looks very loosse, BB vpip 82, min 3beted few times and was doing strange moves all the time.

So i was wondering can we valuebet here? Could he call with Ax or any PP(hardly has any)?

Check the river

i dont think id bet the flop but as played id also check the riv.

Had you read about his min 3-betting range? Vs certain players i valuebet smallish in this spot, they never fold A high to that runout, you can get herocalled also by Qx and I have notes on some players that they make this bet with small pp. Against those i bet for sure.

+1 to check back flop.
As played you have a psb otr, but I still bet something like 160. Hard to get paid by anything worse here.

I'd jam the river. He almost never has AA/Kx/3x in his range given the way it was played out, he might have QQ but that's really all that beats you. There's this thing called zeebo's theorem that says that fish never fold full houses and from my exp. it's 100% true.

And yea, check the flop.

strongly disagree, w that weird line he can easily have us beat, prob not 3x but if he ever takes this line, I expect most of his AA/KK combos to take this line. by jamming you maybe get called by some broadway that didnt hit but thats pretty unlikely too. i guess he'll call TT and under too, but ime underpairs dont take this line too often

Why is checking the flop back better than betting it?

Pot Control?

I think since he's pretty much a randomly clicking aggro moron, he's min3betting all pairs and probably all Ax, so yea, he might have us beat, but it's unlikely. I know that people are capable of taking this like with aces, kings or queens, but quite often i see people randomly turn over 44 or A7 or whatever here. So i like shoving here.

I dont think he is checking any 3x or Kx OTR, and min 3bets are weak hands most of the times (small pp Ax or so) Id say it would depend on your reads and gameflow.


bet 200 or so and fold to an unlikely raise

I was thinking about 3bet pots in these days and how people have very unbalanced ranges in these situations (me included).
Regarding flop, what hands do you think it's + EV to bet?
What hands do you bet/fold? What bet/call?

Agree with alficor regarding villain range btw, but I don't know if villain can call a shove with his weak holdings, so I still think an underbet could be better.

Given what you have posted OP I dislike a jam. I know he is a fish, but we rep Kx or better too hard on this dry board, so we rep a stronger range than we have for value which is never a good thing.

He will of course call with all hands that beat you except in some unlikely case he folds QQ, and I just don't see him calling with Ax that often. What's the dynamic? Have you been particularly aggro, tripled barreled before? He is loose passive, but imo most of those would fold Ax otr to a jam.

But we are ahead enough vs his showdown hands, so I like a smaller bet otr.

I don't think villain will often check a hand that beats us on the river.

Also c/c the flop and then leading the turn excludes hands like AA and especially KK from his range imo, it looks like he's trying to rep a 3 and then gives up when called and another 3 pops on the river.

C/c the flop and turn and leading the river would look like KK, but why would anybody lead the turn and when called check the river with the nuts risking that u gonna check behind with all of the hands that have any showdown value?

On the other hand , it is more likely that he is checking the river hoping for a cheep showdown with Ax, smaller pairs or even Qx.

So I would bet the river, how much depends on what I think villain might call.

I'd bet about 450 on river..hes calling with A

Hero bets 220, BB is all-in 1330

So now i def have to fold?
Like i was so lost and unable to put him on any range here, but just don't see that he could bluff with this line like ever.

And few people said they would check back OTF, i am not sure i understand why it is better, can you give arguments for that?

^ Dryness of the flop + pot control given people's tendancy to trap in that spot.