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Old 03-31-2015, 03:42 PM   #1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 134
60$ Turbo vs reg - oop 3B pot 71bb - facing raise on T vs CB

PokerStars - $57.67+$2.33|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 71 BB
SB: 79 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 A

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 2 players) 6 3 8
Hero bets 6 BB, SB calls 6 BB

Turn: (24 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 14 BB, SB raises to 28 BB, Hero ?

mr 71 , no 3B pot game behind for the moment

Last edited by Mirikrom; 03-31-2015 at 03:48 PM.
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Old 04-02-2015, 05:37 AM   #2
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 101
Re: 60$ Turbo vs reg - oop 3B pot 71bb - facing raise on T vs CB

Looks like a fold to me vs reg without much reads. Would have to be very aggro to pull a bluff here.
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Old 04-02-2015, 08:01 AM   #3
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Posts: 73
Re: 60$ Turbo vs reg - oop 3B pot 71bb - facing raise on T vs CB

Looks like a very easy fold to me. You're reping strong. His range is full of 2p/sets Unless I have a read he can do this with combo draws I fold without a sigh.
What's his Tendancies oop in non 3betpot? Does he floats this kind of board for example?
Does he c/r flop?
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Old 04-02-2015, 08:27 AM   #4
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 50
Re: 60$ Turbo vs reg - oop 3B pot 71bb - facing raise on T vs CB

yeah i am folding this one too.
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Old 04-04-2015, 12:15 PM   #5
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 134
Re: 60$ Turbo vs reg - oop 3B pot 71bb - facing raise on T vs CB

no much hand history behind but villain seems to be passive both pre and post flop when deep. flatting 6/8 oop and folding vs CB 3/8 otf. no c/r no donks play. no T probe bet but 3/4 probe on R (dont remember now if with bluff, monster or thin value ). himself he open about 70-80% IP and CB about 80% from which he fold 3of4 vs my c/r (sorry again cannot tell you structure of flop for such situation but I try to do it in balanced way).
In general meaning at present moment I would tag guy as weak passive reg play safe ABC poker. Remarked that when shallow his games changed for more aggro. But yeh, sample size very small so my observation can be not very accurate.

Pre flop for tight passive ABC player, but yet still reg, when deep and due fact it was my 1th 3B this deep I assign him below range:

on the flop 6d3c8h my way of thinking is:

1. He expect me to bet with my entire range. Due this fact and that he was floating to my CB oop frequently I believe he will continue on this board quiet often (if not with 100% of his range) and I do not except have a lot of fold equity here.
2. However my Ad9d is slightly better here imo vs his calling range (flopzilla show 53.2% vs 46.8% here). ott 24 cards will improve his equity, 23 will improve mine. so almost same, my equity ott will drop down by 2% but still will be in average about 51.2 vs his 48.8. As I expect him here to check behind if I check, then I bet for protection (not giving him free card) and for value. I believe fact that I have 9 help me a lot as I believe he do not expect me to handle this card very frequently and : a) it give me potential bigger winning if I hit it (even more then if I hit A, as if A coming by T it is more belivable that I have it and as well he can in small % of time have better A or A6,A3s, even A8 if he decided not to raise). So 9 from one side give me extra money if I hit, from second side it works as blocker (I do not combine much both option as I am co conscious that or it is blocker or value card, rarly both option at same times). As well 9 is good as it can safe my by R if he hit on T his middle/middle low connectors/one gappers. So I bet for value.

ott 9h coming. nice

his range do not change much here (or maybe yes? two nine's are already done from the deck and his range was in big portion based on this card , all middle 9x!! ) so let's see what flopzilla have to say:

his range drop from 388.2 combo to 359.9, so by 28.3 combo or 7.3%. not much yeh? true but our equity vs his remaining range go up strongly!! now our equity vs his range ott is 90% vs 10% . it's even 3.5% more then if we would hit an A. and as I said in point 2 above I believe that fact that we hit an 9 give as potential more money in this spots then fact that we hit A.

so again. I bet for value and protection. I do not believe check is good option because:
1. he will check back often (he is passive abc reg, except of standard mr and CB he do not show any kind of creativity).
2. When he do not check but bet, we are forced to shove as we need to protect and not let him semi bluffing. When we shove, probably he will call with better and fold rest.

so I bet, and that's where interesting situation come, he min raise
as always in this kind of situation we have only three options here: fold, call or raise (I believe that due fact of pot size and remaining money we all can agree in case of raise it always will be an all-in)

before choosing option which have best expectation let's try to figure out his range now from way how this hand has developed until now.

so with which hands our villain is likely to do it? I believe that with a lot of hands! why? because unlikely what I said before, this smart ass actually think a little bit about ranges and he know I am reg. and he is conscious that if he doing this he will rep strong here and that this board is more likely to hit his 3B calling range that my 3B raising range. and even I decide here to call as I know that he can do it with a lot of floats, then I will make mistake as I will be basically pot committed and still forced to fold on much R card. yeah.. I know whats you think right now.. I leveling myself could be so let's check other option.

if he doing this with ovairpair+ then it sucks and is clear fold. however he is only about 33 combo like that in his all range. if he hit this it sucks.

but 33 combo is not much from 360 of total possible hands at that stage.

it could be as well that he do it with his TP+gs,sd,gs over card(remember that two nine's are already out of deck!), 2P, set's, straights, combo-draws (he will probably shove them is missing, yet I am interesting what do you actually think about mr strong combo fd+sd here?). so if he do it with this should we call or fold? how to answer such complicated question? thnx god Flopzilla is here for help with math I still not figured out how all this filters works but guys, there are very useful! let's plug it all in!

we can see that if we believe that villain is tricky he can do it with 177 combo so almost half of this range. and vs this range we are fairly enough to call, specially that R card will be more often favorable for as then for villain.
but there is small "BUT!!" is he doing this with fd, oesd, TP gs kicker? with all of them? which all of them he will shove? how much equity will change in case that he do it with some part of his range and some part he shove? if we call what we do on Q,J,T? we fold probably. what about K? I do not believe K is in his range very often. could we do it with 7? I believe he would just call it down. Many question, I just showed as I believe that 33 top combo from such big range do not justify fold here and in second scenario even if we adjust his range dramatically down to ovairpair+ and strong combodraws then I believe that we have still even money at least. I preferred to be aggressive then passive as it pay off in mostly case and didn't wanted to be in difficult spot by R.

so Guys, it's all from me about this hand. it's my first deep hand analyze and I just start to shooting 60's. probably there is a lot of leak in my way of thinking and could be that I am leveling sometimes myself however I am very open for any critic even you will tell me I am fish, just please tell me why as well in this case

Cheers and sorry for my English! I am not native speaker.
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