Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,260)
Villain ($1,740)

Dealt to Hero K Q

Villain calls $10, Hero raises to $80, Villain calls $60

FLOP ($160) 4 9 J

Hero bets $100, Villain calls $100

TURN ($360) 4 9 J A

Hero bets $220, Villain calls $220

RIVER ($800) 4 9 J A 5

Hero bets $860 (AI)

Only had about 10 hands on villain. He'd 4x'd, minraised, and limped from SB, hadn't folded one yet. He 3bet me smallish 2 times from BB (called other 2 times); the one time I called his 3B, he check-minraised an AT7r board.

Btw on the river I think it might have been better to bet more like slightly over 1/2 pot instead; even though I would shove pretty much all my value hands here, a lot of players would bet their value hands something dumb like 450, which means I might get similar amount of folds for cheaper price with my bluff here.

I know that in general you don't want to bluff fish but I thought that this was a particularly good spot for it. Was I just spewing here or was this an OK play? Also any comments on my betsizing on any street are welcome, I think I'm kind of bad at betsizing.


(btw, I left out whether or not he called - my understanding is that I should post results after some discussion's happened?)

What are you trying to accomplish on the river? I wouldn't expect villain to fold Jx and I wouldn't be surprised if he called with 9x given what you've written about him.

I think it's ok. You're going to fold out some 9x here, maybe 88-55/4x if they didn't fold turn and some draws that would likely bluff river some % of time. Yeah he can have Ax/Jx here but I'd discount some of it due to him having a raising range pre. This is def one of the best runouts for bluffing w our exact hand fwiw

As for betsizing, def don't bet 1/2 pot vs a fish here. You can pick that sizing w value hands since it gives better odds and looks less threatening than a big bet. I don't think a 450ish bet is going to be profitable here, I don't think anything is going to fold to such a sizing here except maybe 4x/QT/KT type stuff