no real reads, villain = winning MTT reg w/ small sample of HU sngs

4th hand, nothing happened so far.

i think all 3 options are viable i thought a bit before calling turn to leave myself the option of a credible river bluff but im not sure thats the way to go but i also feel that hes not betting worse Qs here on the river also T_T

$10/$20 No Limit Holdem
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($1,540)
BB ($1,460)

Pre-Flop: ($30, 2 players) Hero is BTN K Q
Hero raises to $60, BB calls $40

Flop: A 2 Q ($120, 2 players)
BB bets $70, Hero calls $70

Turn: J ($260, 2 players)
BB bets $130, Hero calls $130

River: 8 ($520, 2 players)
BB bets $190, $190 to Hero ($1280)?

this is a pretty strange line he has taken imo.

I feel like decent players will donk draws more often than they will donk Ax here 4 hands into a match, but this is such a dry flop the only possible draw would be like JT KJ KT... i dont see KJ or JT donking the turn alot after they pick up some sdv.

He may donk a Q on the flop but i dont imagine he is barreling unless he had like QJ or something like that.

There is of course still the possibility is that he has donked Ax. The fact that you would be cbeting close to 100% here makes leading any Ax pretty spew since he loses the value from all of your air that cbet/folds, so in general I wouldnt assume that the flop donk isnt too strong here, esp when he has no reason to think you will play back light. But given the fact that he has barreled T + R (+flop is so dry) I think the possibility that he did donk with Ax (despite it being pretty bad) is much stronger. Being an MTT player i guess there is a chance he is multitabling, snap raised when he saw his Ax without deeply considering his his position or anything.

unless you have some reason to think that this winning player is tilted and capable of 3bar donk bluffing early in this match (which i kinda think is unlikely given his river sizing) i dont think ur good 21.1% here i think you should fold. Ax seems most likely given his river sizing to me. Then KT and QJ, but i think they may go for a touch bigger value on the river given they think there are more Ax in your range (since they dont have the blocker)

Edit: theres no reason to raise here, you are only praying to fold out a few AX that beat you, you get snapped by all the rest of his value. Despite all my reasoning in game i prolly call this just cos his line is so weird, your getting pretty decent odds and also you get the info on how he played the hand. i think he will be spewing some % here but im not sure its quite 21%

and u dont think he would fold an A to a river raise?

i mean, yes his size is inducing but it also enables me to raise slowplayed 2pairs here i guess so my range isnt entirely polarized

raise to $350 for ****s and giggles

Fold,you're repping really thin with a river raise.

Raise > fold >>> call imo

You can rep a crap ton of 2-pairs and even sets since you're ip and not a whole lot of draws out there that missed.

If he's indeed a winning MTT-player then I assume he's capable of folding A-rag here, which is what he reps.

I dont think he's folding anything that beats us and what are you representing, Q8 and maybe KT?

He is repping A rag +

say you wanna rep like Q8 here's how u do versus what might be his range

Board: Ah 2d Qs Jc 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.424% 36.42% 00.00% 495 0.00 { 22, A2s+, KTs, QJs, A2o+, KTo, QJo }
Hand 1: 63.576% 63.58% 00.00% 864 0.00 { Q8s, Q8o }

theres gonna be 900 in the pot when you raise, how much of your stack do you want to commit to this readless play is what im asking? if you make it like 250-300 more he will be getting pretty insane odds so you dont have as much fe, and the fact that he has taken such a janky line might make him think he has induced a play from you hence making him kinda likely to call with Ax. if you want to raise like 600-900 you do have more fe but i feel like the risk is disproportionate to the reward especially given its the 4th hand of the match and you have no real idea of what he is playing like this. it may be that he rarely plays an A like this and his ranges is almost entirely KT and you have no clue because its 4 hands in.

^agree w/this. I would prrrrobably call here for the info.

Why would villain lead Ax here on a dry board when he knows we're cbetting 100%? I think, because he's FOS and ready to fold to a raise on the flop. (not that we should raise, just saying)

agree that flop lead looks FOS, does the fact that he 3bar donked not cahnge ur mind any tho? esp given his river sizing looks like he isnt getting any folds. like from villain POV theres not really any missed draws you can fold here, it looks loike hero has a made hand... seems like a pretty ugly pure air bluff spot to me

The 3bar does look a little disconcerting. I don't know weather to consider it strong value trying to suck you in or weak betting. The river bet for less than 1/2 pot doesn't look too convincing to me, especially given our pot odds at that point.

It kind of looks to me like some random crap that he's dancing his way through this hand with, picking up assorted draws and SD value with along the way and then making a weakish river bet with some sort of value on the river. With stacks the way they are wouldn't he try to build the pot a litter better or protect with a strong made hand?

Maybe it's a leak but I don't think I'm folding.

yeah i dont hate a call at all, for info as much as his line is so strange that he probably will show janky air/weak value some portion

Do you seriously think a winning player would use these bet sizes with two pair or a set? I'd rather risk 700 to make him fold, than 200 to call.

My standard is to call river readless, and prob get pissed once Villain show Ax. But we see a lot of worst Qx blocking this river imo to make a call +EV

what worse Qx except for Q9 and QT?

yeah, now that I think about there isn't that many worst Qx in his range assuming he's a winning player, but dunno If im able to fold gettin such odds.

Agree the sizing does not look look super strong... but I dont think that you can completely rule 2p+ out of his range by a long way. maybe he is on like AJ and puts hero on the Q and thinks a bigger bet wont get called as often, maybe he has KT and thinks he can induce plays by betting smaller on the river, or maybe most likely of all he is just clicking buttons without thinking and we shouldnt read too deeply into his sizing.

so what i think 'seriously' is that a winning player should not take this line with ATC 4th hand of a match, and so there is somewhat of a posibility that the villain tilty/spewing/a not thinking at alltard. Based upon the ******ed nature of his line im not going to ask him to fold AX+ 4th hand. If he is gonna take these bad lines im sure hero can find a better spot with plenty of chips+time left to play with.

at the end of the day his line is not sensible with ATC so i dont see why hero should put so much faith that his bet sizing necesarily will be sensible in that in indicates specific hands

Fold pre please

ok thanks for the input guys. i shoved the river, he tanks for a bit and folds.

esp his river betsize made me pretty sure that he has a weak Ax. maybe thought hes leading to get value out of K highs, weak pocket pairs that would c/b or define his hand a bit?

still pretty close tho and even tho i first thought that calling would be my least prefered option i think its fine now