prolly a simple hand, but I had no idea what to do

Villain is tight passive, doesnt bluff, gives up on alot of pots, plays very straight forwardly, fit or fold kind of player.


Poker Stars $55.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t1290 25.80 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1710 34.20 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with T 2
Hero calls t25, BB checks

Flop: (t100) 5 3 6 (2 players)
BB bets t250, Hero ???

I limped because he let me limp and didnt raise them at all, so I wanted to keep pot small and jus take down most pots postflop since he didnt defend/float wide and doesnt play back.

I doubt that I have any fold equity here if i shove, based on reads he is never bluffing in this spot on this board.

So the question is do we wanna contiue in the hand, if so, whats the best way to do so, if not state why

jam, we have 50% equity vs pretty much everything, sure we don't have much fe but its a free jam and they do fold here some of the time

Why do you not raise pf vs this: "Villain is tight passive, doesnt bluff, gives up on alot of pots, plays very straight forwardly, fit or fold kind of player."?

edit: vs a tight range of TP+, flushdraws and 78 we're in bad shape actually (45-55 dog vs 66-55,33,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c ,Ac3c,Ac2c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,JcTc ,Tc9c,9c8c,87s,65s,87o)

I'm def. not jamming this vs. described villain.

I am jamming here vs anybody. If you can argue that it's a mistake at all, it's a small one and it's made infrequently. Next hand...

pro jam: math, equity, pot odds

anti jam: why flip when you can easily grind down bad nit with pre-min-raises with very low variance style of play and high expected win rate given the circumstances

Does this age old question of giving up some value to reduce variance apply here?

I think you mean age-old myth.

not jamming this imo

Of course you have a very stable hand and jamming will be good vs. many, many villains (basically anytime you can hope for a fold sometimes). But if he is a passive nit and overbets and you are sure you don't have foldequity I wouldn't do it. You are basically "calling" 1240 for a total pot of 2580 there, so you need to have 48%.

You are close to flipping against any two cards (53%).
You are well behind some (very strong) value-flushdraw mixted ranges (39.8% vs *c*c, 47, 33-99, A6,K6; 43% vs *c*c, 47, 33-99, A6,K6, 35, 36,56,78).

What i'm suggesting isn't the "wait for a better spot"-thing (which is complete b*s most of the time anyways). It's about having a gameplan vs. this kind of fish and making a slightly -EV push here is completely against my gameplan vs. him. I'm getting my (huge) edge in grinding him down in small pots.

Is the consensus here to jam? A breakdown of certain hands versus ours:

1. Pairs larger than T- We have about 43% equity.
2. Pairs 77-99- We are a small favorite, about 52%.
3. Sets- We have about 33% equity.
4. Two pairs- We have 40% equity.
5. Single paired hands (A5, K6, etc.) We are a small favorite, about 52% except when he has a T, we are a small underdog, about 45%.
6. Worse flush draws- we are a 63% favorite.
7. Better flush draws- We are 25%.
8. Combo draws (ex. 8c4c)- We are 75%.
9. Pair plus flush draw (6c8c)- We are a small underdog, 47%.
10. Air( A9, Q7, etc.)- Usually a 60/40, unless they have a 7, in which case we're flipping.

I had to actually lay everything out to see why a shove is gonna be very profitable most of the time. He's probably folding numbers 10, some of 5, and usually calling the rest, which together, we are a decent favorite over. Does this analysis make sense, or am I blowing smoke?

If you read the post you will see that a consensus doesn't exist yet.

As I said, we are 53% vs. any two cards. I can't see how we are a decent favourite over anything you stated there.

It might make sense against some villains, but reread OP and you will see that most of your cases are not in villains range at all (most importantly he will not fold which is a very important variable here).

your reasoning for limping is ******ed, if he doesnt play back and gives up a lot, just raise and take down a bigger pot
ducy?

#1, #2, and #10 we can eliminate from his range, #3 is rare.
So most likely hell show up with #s 4-9.

assuming our only plays are to either shove or fold and calling is NOT an option. And as rendalli stated above, us shoving would be equivalent to villain shoving 1240 into the 100 pot and us calling(assuming we have no FE). and our equity in this spot is about 50/50

I think its a fold, mainly b/c we have a good edge over a weak/tight passive fish, and would be better off outplaying him then to be FLIPPING at best

thoughts?

yea I agree, against this player type limping wasnt best.

folding is ridiculous,

its between call and shove

i fold.

open pre or fold

I don't understand why you would call the overbet. Do we have implied odds here?

if you don't think a shove is good, that is because you think he has a strong hand that he can't release.

which means we call because we stack him if we hit a flush

its really a case of one or the other

Shoving gets us two streets. If we brick the turn and he jams, we lose all our equity.

It's really not even close.

This is true, but if we think we have implied odds to get his whole stack we have enough to call and see if we hit the turn and give up if we miss and he pushes no? I mean vs this type of opponent, were not risking a flip and if we miss on the turn we fold and continue to out play him and win lots of small pots.

I think if we believe that villian will not be able to let go of his hand a large % of the time when we hit on the turn then calling to see the turn may not be so bad (plus there could always be a chance that he slows down on the turn as well as we look pretty strong calling here).

i'm definitely raising pre against this type of player.

flop kinda sucks against the type of player you described but I would shove still as you will have enough equity to be profitable

just jam and close your eyes and twirl your finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.

afterwards immediately punch your monitor before you see what happens so that if you do lose, f poker, never playing again, and if u do win, just buy another with your monies. ducy?

Think one more time about preflop.

It may sound ridiculous, but I strongly advice folding here and I think you guys are missing something which seems to be the insanely precise info we have about villain: "Villain is tight passive, doesnt bluff, gives up on alot of pots, plays very straight forwardly, fit or fold kind of player [...] based on reads he is never bluffing in this spot on this board."

I very, very rarely play such villains (I have maybe 2 or 3 who sit me sometimes that would fit this category) but as ridiculous as it sounds, vs. these ones I'm pretty convinced that folding here is the best play.

I already posted above why I think shoving isn't that great (vs. this opponent). If his range is really that strong (take my ranges from the other post) then any of our outs could be dirty because he has many better flushdraws, sets, 2 pair, straights in his range.

I mean - shoving and closing the eyes etc. is nice but it just sounds to me like you are not really sure about what to do and think "oh well I can't be far behind, maybe I'm slightly ahead - so I shove".

If I fold here vs. this type of complete transparent opponent having 1700 chips, I will win this probably over 65% of the time.