Villan is a supernova, HU grinder 1,1k games is +2k but he is on a huge down swing use to be +9k, is a strong TAG and a very good opponent, often calls raises oop but respect the cbet 80% of the time.
This is the 12th hand and he already 3bet me twice oop, in one of the hands i had QQ and choose to slowplay it IP, flop came J high he fires 1/2 pot i min-raise, end of history.
In this hand [AJ oop] i often 3bet, but choose to keep the pot small oop this type of villan is gonna call my 3bet 70%/80% of the time, i had a little chip advantage so i pretend to keep it that way, without risking to much, at least oop.

Poker Stars $55.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): t1910 95.50 BBs
BTN/SB: t1090 54.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A J
BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t40

Flop: (t120) 6 K J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100, Hero calls t100

Turn: (t320) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t200

Hero?

Fold.

If hes a good thinking oppenent hell be aware that flop smaks your range hard. I think its extremely unlikely hes barreling w/ air here. Id expect the majority of his range to be top pair+, strong draws/combo draws here. Also think its very unlikely hes better a worse jack for value.

Do you have any evidence for this? Also, wouldn't this be a good reason to 3 bet AJ? Keeping the pot small to "keep your chip lead" is not the logic you want to be using.

+1 was about to say this, 3bet pre against this guy.

The problem with folding is there are arent too many Kx combos in a tight players range, so the possibility that he has a J, a smaller pair or a draw is higher than it would be vs a loose player, also hes in position so I give him a bit less credit for a hand, also because you just called preflop and then C/C the flop and checked the turn, there is a good chance hes just trying to pick up the pot vs what he perceives as a weak range (he knows you never have AK here, so there are very few Kx combos you could have. Then again, would he barrel again with a flush draw with so few chips? It looks like hes pot commiting with Kx, but maybe thats what he wants us to think... game theory also tell us there is always a non zero chance our opponent is bluffing.

If hes really good, you are going to have to find some marginal spots to beat him in and this might be one. It might not be. Call or raise, and find out...

OP, read that sentence over and over again about 300 times

THINK ABOUT IT

um....the most important question to ask yourself is "is he double barrelling FDs and SDs." well, if he is then our range for him now is more than just a K. given that you have the A which would most likely complete his SD, a call now becomes much easier because you are ahead of his range. now the next question to ask yourself would be "is he capable of triple barrelling missed draws/low value from top pairs, or only the nuts?" DUCY?

I know its been said but 3 bet pre all day please

Ye, he is IP and he doesn't like to give up for a good spot to exploit me pos-flop when i'm oop.


I didn't 3bet this hand as i normally do, cause i dind't want to 3bet, miss a flop and than play it like a pussy, would lost "credibility" (And yeh i know what type of credibility c/c c/c gives me), i totally think this villan can 3barrel, fd/sd/air to push me around ip, and that's the only reason for my thinking process about calling the turn, tho if i call the turn i loose my purpose that was keep it low ball, i mostly agree with CDOG. And again i know that 3betting is tha way, but i didn't do it, so i wanted to know your actions on the turn according to villans image, your posts were very helpful, thank you guys (:

how would you know that you were gonna miss the flop?

You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards on the flop: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%), right? So i'm worried about those 68%

^ you're not thinking about the times he folds preflop, misses the flop, or flops a smaller pair then you. 3 betting AJ and c-betting the majority of flops is very easily profitable.

fold equity, draws, improving on the turn are all gonna mess up your equation.
btw this kind of logic leads you nowhere, i have been there and had that "3betting AK is -EV, i will cbet, he will call and i will fold turn always" attitude.

I'm not rlly sure if you should raise or falt, but folding is out of question in my opinion.
there are tones of smaller pairs and draws that you beat, and you are only worried about a K rlly.
If he's a regular he's able to 2barrel a 6 there, to charge your draws and meaby to push you off a J.
like cgod said, you might be good, you might now, just call or raise and find out.

That's all correct, but against this villan i don't wanna be floating oop, at least so soon cause we are to deep to jam a possible missed turn, with AK i really don't mind to jam for a 4bet preflop or a missed flop/turn. At the time i really felt that if i missed the flop and bet, i'm gonna get called easily

you know, this is a common flaw in thinking. he either calls cbets too much or too seldom (or perfectly, whatever that might be...). let's assume your opponent always floats you. as a result, you can just check everytime you miss and extract tons of value by cbetting very big.

at some point, either because your frequency is so low or your size is so big, your opponent will inevitably start folding to your cbets (i doubt you would insist on believing that he calls a shove otf 100% of the time). so what you shouldn't do is stop 3betting in obvious 3betting spots, but adjust your cbetting frequency and size to your opponents tendencies.

of course AJs isn't a mandatory 3bet against all opponents, but if his range is very wide pre you are super exploitable if you don't 3bet enough. also you can exploit him if he calls 3bets too wide, as most people do (as i once stated, i have an overall 3bet success of ~30%).

3b pre ldo,especially that he calls so wide.I'd call turn

Thank so much Ohly, you have been very helpful, thanks again (: