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Old 04-03-2019, 03:49 PM   #1
kakospaidis
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$50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

partypoker - 15/30 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 28.13 BB (VPIP: 67.30, PFR: 10.77, 3Bet Preflop: 1.85, Hands: 223)
Hero (SB): 21.87 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 5

Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) A 3 4
BB checks, Hero bets 1.3 BB, BB calls 1.3 BB

Turn: (6.6 BB, 2 players) 7
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (6.6 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

BB shows 2 J (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 55%, Flop 25%, Turn 30%)
Hero shows 4 5 (Two Pair, Fours and Threes)
(Pre 45%, Flop 75%, Turn 70%)
Hero wins 21.6 BB

Ok,So my range looks a little capped,and most of the times in this particular board I don't have an Ax in my range.
But all the draws got there and he can have a lot of 3x in his range,plus some flushes which I do not block,plus his only bluffs are the hand that he has,some 2x that bricked and some bdfd that also bricked.
After I reviewed the hand I thought that was a losing call!
Any opinions?
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Old 04-03-2019, 05:36 PM   #2
GonZo72
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Nice advertising for Partypoker spins
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Old 04-03-2019, 07:41 PM   #3
valuecutting
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

not sure if you are implying that it's advertising because of fishy play or just the title but everything besides the call preflop look ok

can't he also have all 5x here? really gross spot but I think this is a reasonable call

if you know its a fish then its an easy fold, don't you have reads on this guy after 200+ hands?
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Old 04-03-2019, 10:36 PM   #4
maxagso
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

The call with 54o could make sense if you think he is overbluffing by probing all of his bd club draws for example. Just make sure he isn't a nit vs cb since these bluffs are not in his range in that case. Against most players i whould call my 3 combos of 54o with flushblocker and fold the other 6 combos including this one, but i whould find some hero calls with Kx instead.

And i think you should have some Ax here. On this turn i whould check many Ax without a spade. Same thing with KK-TT without spades. So i dont have any problem with folding this specific hand without dynamics.
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Old 04-04-2019, 07:56 AM   #5
none888
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Yeah, opponents line is very good aside from pre call.
And from his stats, guy seems passive so imo kinda easy fold.
Even vs someone very agroo Id say its a fold, you have 5 in your hand, blocking some of his bluffs, also someone already mentioned even some K highs will be better calls
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Old 04-04-2019, 10:57 AM   #6
kakospaidis
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Thanks,guys I guess some Kx with the Ks would be better than the hand I have due to blockers.
I thought that villain had some bluffs in his range that's why I sigh called.
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Old 04-08-2019, 10:54 PM   #7
undftd23
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

That's really not a good turn card for a lot of our value hands either. Getting C/R on the turn is an ugly spot so I think you should definitely have some AX to be checking these turns with as well kind of for this exact reason where you're inviting a lot of river barrells if you're never checking behind AX on that turn.

I don't think a call is necessarily unreasonable. AX is probably unlikely, so he's repping either a 3X, Flush or straight, but his range certainly includes all those with fewer bluffs. If he decides to turn his 4X or 7x into a bluff, you're also chopping with one and beaten by the other. Without a read though, I would lean towards folding most of the time. It's still early and you can likely find some better spots later on as well. I think he would probably need to be bluffing far too often for this to be a profitable call.
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Old 04-24-2019, 04:07 AM   #8
Pl@yerABC
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Your analysis is correct. It's a loosing call in the long run - but that's great that you got lucky and picked the right time to call
I would add few minor points:
- people don't call with every 2-x offsuit preflop - so the amount of bluffing hands on the river (2-x) are even more limited
- some people don't recognize backdoor flushes on the flop and are overfolding those types of hands (-> less bluffing hands on the river)

The more interesting question for you to ask yourself is: why are you calling in game when every argument points to a fold? Was it to much curiosity? Or were you not paying enough attention? Or where you on tilt? I would say that psychology is more interesting here than strategy perspective (because you clearly know strategy).
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Old 05-11-2019, 06:01 AM   #9
vini.barbosa
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

This bet is so polarized. Its a fullhouse or nothing (quads too). A flush wont overbet when the 3 comes because you do have some fulls on your range. That said you do have potodds to call this bet (full+ vs bluffs).

If he is beting this on a linear strategy he is surely loosing alot of money and i would only fold if had good reads that he is doing that.
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Old 05-11-2019, 07:01 AM   #10
none888
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Pretty sure you can easily overbet good 3x and at worst it will be "fine". And its very fish depended imo, some tight fish prob does this with super strong hands only and there def will be some who will do this with every 3x
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Old 05-11-2019, 08:07 AM   #11
vini.barbosa
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by none888 View Post
Pretty sure you can easily overbet good 3x and at worst it will be "fine". And its very fish depended imo, some tight fish prob does this with super strong hands only and there def will be some who will do this with every 3x


Agreed that there will always be some players doing that with any 3x, but IMO itís not the standard play for the field.
Thatís why i said that itís ďread dependentĒ.

If i have reads that lead me to conclude this villain would be overbeting a set in that wet board it would be different
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Old 05-11-2019, 08:35 AM   #12
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Re: $50 spin:What to do against difficult river probe!

Quote:
Originally Posted by vini.barbosa View Post
Agreed that there will always be some players doing that with any 3x, but IMO itís not the standard play for the field.
Thatís why i said that itís ďread dependentĒ.
Yeah, def read dependent esp if we have more than 200 hands vs this guy.
But vs fish imo in this spot you can do whatever you want, these river overbet probes are so rare that it wont even matter in the long run and if we would look in db what their range looks like in those spots, id bet its pretty value heavy
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