Villain is a fish. He c/c draws/lower pairs, didn't really c/r. He had donked once before, but I folded the flop. I would say that most of his range is TP here, although obv he can have some draws.

He's a bit stationy, but not reg stationy, meaning that he'll call small bets with hands that used to be good, but he is willing to fold to large action if the board makes him scared.

Full Tilt Poker $50 + $2.50 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BB: t1450 48.33 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1550 51.67 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with 8 5
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30

Flop: (t120) 7 4 3 (2 players)
BB bets t90, Hero calls t90

Turn: (t300) 2 (2 players)
BB bets t140, Hero

Flop I think can be a fold or call, I prefer calling here since the board will get crappy for his hand soooo often, and our straight also gets us paid a lot, since he'll still have TP.

Turn is interesting. My standard line here would be a small raise to set up a pot-sized jam on the river when overs come (just because I don't give him credit for being able to hand-read), and I'm curious about other alternatives.

think i would just flat here assuming 11 outs, i think it's asking a bit much to try and push a fish off top pair on this board and half the rivers that could come wont really be good bluffing cards. there are a lot of turns where your intended line is good, but a 2 just isn't one of them imo.

I see where you're coming from, but Ax and 6x will get me crying calls from his TP, and so more than half the deck is good for me. Also hearts are very very bluffable.

I feel like I have a lot more ways to win the hand overall if I raise. I guess I almost have direct odds to flat though...question really is if we can bluff river well if we don't raise the turn (against a fish, against a reg is totally different and flatting is better imo).

fold flop

no need to bluff fish

if hes a reg raise flop

lol the funny thing is I just looked and was like wtf was a I doing on the flop.

Ok, pretend that the 3 isn't there, now what?

I don't hate flop, I'd float it vs 60-75 tho 90 is kinda meh, readless it's TP less often than you think. as played def flat turn it's a v good card for us and we have direct odds to call while not much FE

Hey man, after giving it a lil more thoughts, I came to think that you might be hoping for too much on the river. If I am not misdirected, your plan is twofold:

a) If an overcard comes, you can shove for psb and he will fold what you think to be 7x quite often.
b) If A or 6 comes, you can shove for psb and he will make a crying call (with what you think to be 7x quite often).

Well, I thought about it this way. From his point of view, A or 6 is way scarier than overcards like J-K imo. I mean if river is Q, how can you really rep Qx if you got there this way (float flop, raise turn and shove river)? I agree you will still get a fold some time, but that shouldn't be because he was too scared of overcards. IMHO, when an overcard (let's say Q for god's sake) comes he should be thinking either 1) my TP is still good since all draws missed and that Q doesn't really change things; or 2) my TP was maybe not good back on turn, so although that Q doesn't change much I cannot call that psb shove. I'm not sure if he would think this deep, but if he's not a thinking player he's more likely to call (case 1) than fold (case 2) when an overcard comes anyway. Actually, for this play (bluffing at overcard river) to work enough of time, he should be able to hand read to some extent, although this might sound counter intuitive.

On the other hand, when A or 6 comes, the board will now have 4 straight and people are generally afraid of making a "hero call" in these spots even w/ TP. I'm a bit more optimistic about ace on the river, as opposed to 6, because if he has an ace and A hits the board, he might c/c your psb shove.. especially if he has two pair (A7 would be a good example). But how many Ax are in his range barring A7? If the river is 6, I would doubt if he can call your psb w/ "just" 7x.

So all in all, I'm thinking your opponent actually has to be somewhat good for both plan a) and b) to work enough of time and be +ev.

Cliff:

In general, people will be much more scared of A or 6 on the river than overcards, so you should expect to get called more often in the latter.

This is not to say that your play on the flop and turn is bad, I'm sure they are creative and +ev, but flatting seems much better than raising for the reasons mentioned above. If it was not too obvious, let me rephrase it: if you keep the pot small, you prolly won't get more fold when an over comes, but you might get more call when A or 6 comes (I don't think we have much FE on the river in either case, and turn FE is about 0). Not to mention that it sucks if you get 3-bet on the turn since that kinda ruins your plan and you might not be able to continue.

Sorry, this is kinda tl;dr but w/e, please tell me if anything is wrong or I misunderstood your original plan, etc.

PS: damn, this is a bit poorly worded, so just hit me up on skype if you have questions about it. I think I can explain it clearer there, but am too lazy to edit my post.

more like raise this flop...and barrel so many cards.

I agree with you, but I wasn't really readless. I had seen enough of his other lines at showdown to infer that he wasn't leaving much TP in his range when he wasn't donking, and was not playing his draws, marginal equity, or air too aggressively. Obv TP is not the ONLY thing in his range, but it's a lot of it.

I agree with this (although disagree slightly with your premise that he is actively putting me on a range), which is why...

I agree with that, and wish I had done it, since stacks are totally fine for this line.

sb, what sizing would you raise to? My initial instinct would be like 225ish, since I don't expect to have much FE on the flop, and want to maximize my leverage on later streets.

do not see any point in raising here, just because not so much hands with low equity are db that flop
just call and fold that turn

if you raise flop and fire turn are you gonna ship river?

I raise flop and take it from there

Totally depends on river, that was kind of the point of mela's long post.

sb_football and punch are right in that if I raise flop, I can rep a ton more hands later, and there are a lot of turns and rivers I can barrel.

To answer your question, I would ship a river if even one over came to the 7. He has a lot of marginal 7x and crappy pairs when he donk/calls/calls turn, and shipping is a pretty profitable line ime (i.e. when I get called it is very very rarely by pairs that are < TP).

Anyway, I've started raising the flop more in this spot with good results so far, so I will keep orienting myself to those results.

I think people overestimate their fold equity when raising leads on this texture. It depends how many hands in this is and what % he leads tbh.

i just fold flop vs station. As played call turn and on good river reevaluate and make a move