First hand. I just want to know if folding this is a possibility since your either screwed or villain is doing with with Ax, this is maybe a bluff or something else one in a trillion times. The typical logic here is "can't fold if pot is this big" but I want to know if that applies to this situation since your basically screwed 90% of the time.



No Limit Holdem Tournament
CakePoker
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Heo (SB) (1,500)
BB (1,500)

Blinds: 10/20

Pre-Flop: (30, 2 players) Hero is SB A K
Calvy667 raises to 80, BB calls 60

Flop: J A 5 (160, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 160, BB calls 160

Turn: 4 (480, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 480, BB calls 480

River: 7 (1,440, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 780, ????

First, cbet smaller, bet turn smaller, just a lot more value keeping in his weaker hands IMO, a PSB will push them out a lot I feel.

OTR I think this is a tricky spot, would like to hear some other guys thoughts.

lolwat. If you don't understand, this is basically a math question. You need to call 780 to win 3000 chips (780/3000=0.26), so if you think you're ahead here 26% of the time or more, make the call. I'm not in the mood to go through the ranges atm, but lets say you sort out his range that you're ahead of and behind to that make this play, and say you're good 1/3rd of the time, you'll make the call.

lol the sick part is that you're clearly behind but the fact that the villain is an unknown almost makes this a call

How the **** can you be clearly behind, but then call because the villain is unknown? You're obviously not 'clearly behind', if you were you'd just fold, especially when readless.

Is never a fold there special regards how was playing all the hand.
So 100% is no fold on river.

Its a spot where you have to call, the spot being

1. TPTK on a dry-ish board
2. Villain is an unknown, its the first hand

We really don't know how often the villain is bluffing obv, which is why we make a crying call. It looks like a 2p line imo. Call, expect to see a better hand, blame it on variance.

Given our large bet sizing, fold.
Why do you bet pot 2 streets?
And also 4x-ing pre ?
Bet smaller imo.

call

call-call-shove on this board against those bets i think you are probably beat.

you cant fold it after two pot size bets, i don't think it is too bad to pot it every street in the first hand of the match, but as usual sizing these bets are no good

third spade makes his play more polarized, he almost never get there with straight or flush, 2 pairs and sets are probably raising this turn, so 5 dollar bluff is possible

I almost always call this but your almost guaranteed to be beat agaisnt donks lol. Just like a "F this, i call" type call imo.

Epic sizing.

I figured this was an obvious call, but I just thought it was interesting that I absolutely hated doing it because I knew I was screwed most of the time

I've just lost something like 8 BIs recently, mostly due to bad luck even though I think my endgame needs improvement.

On bet sizing: I don't see why we shouldn't be going for stacks here. I rose 4x b/c 90% of villains at this level call every button raise at the begging of the even though alot of them will adjust a little bit later when they realize you aren't completely full of sh*t.

I would actually like to have a discussion on bet sizing: I mean, I charged his J8 and he got crazy lucky. Plus, the default play at the micro stakes cash games with AK hit top pair/Overpair is to go for stacks. Wouldn't this be even more so considering we start with 75BB? I mean I obviously adjust for tighter players ect.

Tough hand Calvy. The logic you used is often true, especially if you do not have a read but there are other things to consider. I think given your line most will probaly put you on a strong hand, but there is always the off chance villain thinks your trying to steal and desperation shoves a J, or even Q10 or K10. I think that usually this is two pair or something strange that got there, but there are times when they are just trying to push you off something. Without a read Id say its very close, with good arguments for calling and folding. I think that I fold more then I call, because your line looks a lot more strong then it does weak, but still its a tough spot and there is not too much wrong with calling.

As for your bet sizing, I think its good. I like pot, pot, pot or all in on this board especially if you think most of your competition is on the weaker side. Its absolutely right to play for stacks with these kinds of hands against more inexperienced players. Maybe against a tougher opponent you can mix it up, but against a weaker player its a great hand to play strongly. I wouldnt lose much sleep over this, thats for sure.

losing 8BI should not be of concern, that is not uncommon in husng.

Yeah but it kinda ****s with your self confidence as a poker player, espeically since I switched to only playing HUSNG and I lost something like 10 BI in something like 30 matches. I feel alot better though b/c a large portion of time it was rediculous suckouts like this one.

Beforethereign, I'm glad you understand my conundrum. I just appear way to strong for a bluff to be likely. But, fish aren't very knowledgable, and this could be a form of "hand protection", and it could be a bluff even though I've never seen a bluff like this one, so folding this is not a good manuever

To make the call, you have to believe that there is a more than 25% chance that this guy is either:
- suicidal enough to bluff the river after you've shown so much strength, or
- stupid enough to be betting a weaker ace

If I don't have any information on him, I don't think 25% of the opponents fall into one of these categories, so in my opinion it's a very disgusted fold, but judge for yourself.