$5 deepstack, 2pair on river line check - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$5 deepstack, 2pair on river line check

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02-22-2011 , 06:43 PM

Coin

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 84

First hand of match so no reads on villain

Is this spewy or standard ?

Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10.00/t20.00 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BB: t3000.00 150 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t3000.00 150 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with A

Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80.00, BB calls t80

Turn: (t280) 4

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t175.00, BB calls t175

River: (t630) 7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400.00, BB raises to t1600, Hero raises to t2685, BB calls t1085

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02-22-2011 , 07:34 PM

alexDJI

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,779

I would certainly not shove over his river c/r. Maybe call, but his raise makes me want to puke.

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02-22-2011 , 10:20 PM

Stealy Man

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexDJI

I would certainly not shove over his river c/r. Maybe call, but his raise makes me want to puke.

this

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02-23-2011 , 12:55 AM

mela

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 3,228

The first hand at $5s, I'd call this but not fistpump or anything. No point in shoving though, there's like 0 draw that got there on the river and his raise screams 2 pair or a slowplayed set.

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02-23-2011 , 03:59 AM

reallymonkeyish

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 570

River shove is spew, everything else is fine. Pretty sure his c/r range on this board is ahead of you, but you have odds to call vs. worse 2pair. Given that his c/r range is ahead of you shoving is really bad.

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02-23-2011 , 01:41 PM

JSpazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 6,694

I'd jam really, even if he plays 100% of his set combos like this we're still ahead if we add 7x 2pair hands, tho I don't expect to have much more than 55-60% equity vs his c/r range

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02-23-2011 , 01:50 PM

Barewire

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,724

river is ridiculously close, he likely doesn't have better 2 pair and almost definitely doesn't have a straight, so we lose to a handful of sets (77 makes the most sense) that hand a ton of patience and took an extremely good line. on the other hand, we beat an overplayed Q7/67. i'd absolutely never fold, shoving seems a tad thin though i don't hate it.

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02-23-2011 , 01:54 PM

alexDJI

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,779

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSpazz

I'd jam really, even if he plays 100% of his set combos like this we're still ahead if we add 7x 2pair hands, tho I don't expect to have much more than 55-60% equity vs his c/r range

you're insane. Jamming there is almost never going to be profitable. He could have floated 35s with the backdoor flushdraw on the flop, and he's almost certainly not going to play A/Q64 this way. What are you hoping for? That he has like Q7 or like KT? I don't think he's going to c/r those hands on the river (maybe KT but I reaaaally doubt it).

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02-23-2011 , 06:32 PM

ohly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,696

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexDJI

this is probably much closer than you think, although i thought this was an easy flat as well.
think about the combo's that are possible for him to have. there are at the most 6 backdoor straights and 18 set combos, while some of them are highly unlikely. he might have AQ also but most players will 3bet this or c/r the flop. 67 and Q7 alone are 12 combos, now add in some A4 and A6 combos and it gets really close.

i still believe this is a flat, just because it seems like we are as close to 50% equity against is value range as we can get. folding would be absurd though.

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02-23-2011 , 06:41 PM

#10

alexDJI

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,779

Quote:

Originally Posted by ohly

ok now tell me how many combos of weaker hands he has with exactly this line, compared to how many combos of stronger hands he has. Most 2 pairs we get value from flat the river.

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02-23-2011 , 06:44 PM

#11

ohly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,696

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexDJI

ok now tell me how many combos of weaker hands he has with exactly this line, compared to how many combos of stronger hands he has. Most 2 pairs we get value from flat the river.

how could we possibly know that? with reads i would agree, but readless i don't. we might as well assume that he 3bets AA,QQ,AQ a hundred percent of the time, never does a horrible float with just backdoor flushdraw and backdoor straight draw and that he folds 44 on the flop, 77 on the turn and c/r 66 otf. here we go, he has no value range that beats us.

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02-23-2011 , 07:13 PM

#12

alexDJI

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,779

well in that case, I think you can assign him a nice little range and stove it yea?

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