Mod announcement:

Effective immediately, LXThrottle is subbing in for nine9.

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Inactive players:
KarlizL

These players did not post on day 2. If they do not post today, they will be subbed out.

After a long night, the villagers found the dead body of one of their most treasured heroes. It was a crushing blow to their hopes. Legend stated that his soulreading powers were so great that he could literally peer into the physical soul of his opponents and determine their deepest desires.

mersenneary has been killed by the wolves. He was a



Dead players

filthyvermin - villager, lynched d1
punch dancer - villager, killed n1
Kurru - villager, killed n1

iheardjoeblows - neutral serial killer, lynched d1
mersenneary - village seer, killed n2

Live players (25)
bambam192
bbq
berksonz
bob ross
chadders0
chugenemes
coffeeyay
dhcg86
donjonnie
duncelanas
earl
hookt
jackoneill
jspazz
karlizl
lolsteamroller
moteutsch
nine9
polycarpus
raised by jews
sheerb
spamz
tamas6
yaqh
znark86

16 villagers, 1 village seer, 1 village angel, and 7 wolves remain.


IT IS NOW DAY, YOU MAY POST

well we're f'ed now

I guess we have to pilfer through Mers' posts and find his peeks. we only get 2 though. sigh.

I guess it's ok we got the serial killer though

and at least we get to put the wtf gun to the people who were suggesting lynching Mers.

so much for bob going, and lets address dhcg's fail of a vote at the end that cost us the tiebreaker.

he was pushing for mers all game too

dhcg86

vote now, think later imo.

Disclaimer:
I’m writing this post during the night. I can only post it during the day, but just note that whoever got killed (or saved) during the night, and posts after daybreak, are not taken into account in my post here.
/Disclamer

First: reference.
To make browsing older posts easier, let me say here that Day 2 started on page 19 and Day 3 will start on page 42 or 43. Could we maybe label our posts in the title with the day #? In stead of leaving the “Re: 4/26 HUSNG Forum WW Game”, can’t we make it “Re: Day 1” etc?

Second on iheardjoeblows and double voting.
He was the serial killer, so he had a double vote. He voted on filthyvermin on Day 1, what explains why filthy was killed over jack. Therefor, we can not be a 100% certain that there were wolves in the people who voted for filthy. But we do know, that the double-voting wolf was not amongs the voters for jack. So these 6 people can not be the double voting wolf:
bbq, Kurru (dead anyway), sheerb, spamz, tamas6 and yaqh
They can still be wolves, but they can’t be the double-voting one.

Third: On a single versus two wagons.
My understanding was, that it’s best to go for one wagon. Why? If it’s close between two wagons, the wolves will determine the outcome and certainly a villager will get killed. I understand that if we go with two wagons, and keep it close, there is a chance of catching the double-voting wolf. But if he’s a bit smart, he won’t get exposed too easily, as we can only detect him if he’s voting for the second wagon, and the second wagon “wins” the flip. Maybe we’re more likely to spot wolves if the race between two wagons is close, but it’s more important to kill them than to spot them. So if we have strong thoughts about somebody being a wolf, isn’t it better to make sure we hang him? If my reasoning is incorrect here, I welcome one of the more experienced players to enlighten me, or direct me to some existing WW strategy post where this is explained.

Fourth: On Hookt.
I find this a bit suspicious, as the villagers don’t have to care too much about who the angel is. But the wolves are desperate to find him asap. This sounds like Hookt tries BamBam192 to expose himself if he’s the angel. Also: I would not be too surprised if BamBam gets killed tonight, because of that.
How did he suddenly made up his mind about this?
Hookt (or others): feel free to explain, but for me the above makes you lean 1 point more towards the wolves.

Will probably post more after I find out what happened during the night. All for now.

Aw shiet.

Just a post to change the title to Day 3 - for reference

Spent a long time going over posts last night and thought mers might be seer and jspazz is the wolf.

would a wolf make this comment, damn head **** this game is

I also think a lot of the 5 people who voted for filthy are not wolves and the wolves pressed hard yesterday for us to "concentrate on those 5 because they must be wolves"

they jspazz remarks came because of his posting style, which mers identified as different from the strat threads, this was on day 2.as far as i can see there would be no motive for mers to peek at jspazz's role before then so he is either makin an educated guess or he coincedently did peak and then tried to tell us, i think it would be more likely to be the earlier since i cant see mers being so obvious with the info he found (or maybe he thought it was fine if he could disguise it under a plausible reason hell i dunno)...

jspazz does seem wolfy and he was Mers' biggest wolf "by feel" lean. peek maybe? either way he seems like a good wagon to have today. force him to make some substance posts.

fwiw his voting record is spotless--Spamz then donjonnie, so he went with the most villagery wagons. i think this makes him even wolfier since they were the doomed wagons that would mask his role. and he would have thought iheardjoe was a villager.

I guess we should pull up his posts and make him first wagon. then we need some second wagon.

So here we have mers his peeks. Should be two peeks, n0 and n1. So based on above list, I guess he's saying that:
a) duncelanas and spamz are villagers
b) duncelanas is a villager and jspazz is a wolf
c) jspazz and iheardjoeblows are wolves

We know iheardjoeblows was not a wolf, so c) is out of the question. That leaves us with:
Confirmed villager: duncelanas!
Probable villager: spamz
Probable wolf: jspazz

If I than think who mers would be more likely to peek, I think that would be spamz over jspazz. So I add spam to the top of my trusted villagers list.

Chadders, I'm not sure what to make of this but explain why yesterday you mentioned the "wolve are 6 strong"

Are you a wolf and forgot to include yourself?

no one said they must be wolves. just that they're the best place to start. Punch Dancer said this too before he died.

arent their 6 wolves in the game?

7

nope 7 my bad, but please also not that i have been interchanging wolve and wolf this whole thread so it could just be down to me being an idiot, i mean i wrote their instead of there in my last post and its killing me i cant edit it

Maybe I am taking this one step too far, but what strikes me first is: If mersenneary's list was accurate I dont think the wolfs would have killed him directly. Therefore, I think his list was way off (except the 2(?) peeks he has made) cuz for me its more likely they want us to think he got killed because of a very accurate list.

Chadders in strategy posts I believe they say that as a seer your messages need to be extremely clear and not to expect the villagers to read your mind. He mentioned jspazz being a nerd like him so I can see where he would peek him, and had probably needed to make an accusation before he gets killed.

they killed him because he was leading us in the right directions and was incredibly useful. it's standard. i think they just got lucky that he happened to be seer.

Also, polycarpus right now you're voting for duncelanas

completely agree with this..

The bold was not ment as a vote, obviously. But to make sure:
unvote
vote jspazz

so jspazz is as close as we can get to confirmed wolf. it's important not to fall into the mentality of saving a known wolf for later--as far as i've read best to lynch the highest probability wolf asap.

plus if we find out that he's not a wolf it should make Mers' peeks obvious--obv not best result possible, but at least a consolation prize.

Jspazz

Now we need a second wagon to get some info from voting patterns