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04-27-2011 , 02:49 PM
Im only on the first page of day 2, but I think Bob Ross is the serial killer. My reasoning is, just look at his avatar.
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04-27-2011 , 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by bbq
I wanna hear from more people before i decide anything...i really don't like how guys like spamz, mers, dhcg86, karlizl, lolsteamroller and raised by jews is just quietly sitting there not saying anything
level?
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04-27-2011 , 02:55 PM
If anyone needs more explaining to do, it's you that voted for me and say I'm wolfy. I don't think I'm wolfy one bit. I'm being voted simply because I was active for voting filthy and went against the advice of others.

You guys thought that filthy was suspicious for sure, but wanted to keep him for another day or so, so I don't know why I should take so much heat for being suspicious of him and wanting to get rid of him right away.

He started off being so active and helpful, so it made me question his motives. I read through the thread actively and had to seriously think it over a lot but I felt the need to post later on saying that I was still sticking with filthy because I didn't want to listen to his advice the next day. He was an experienced player and I felt more or less intimidated by his actions so my instincts were to believe he was trying to rope the dumb villagers into following him and I didn't want to be influenced by him further.

I'm being voted because I've stuck with my vote and didn't hinder to pressure, I'd love to hear from someone how I sound so wolfy, because I think my argument for hookt is more solid than anyone's and no one seems to care about that. Everyone else wants to base their votes on "not being active" or one of the billions that voted for filthy but didn't change their vote. Well maybe the ones who changed their votes are wolves because they knew the villagers kept going after filthy.
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04-27-2011 , 02:59 PM
if we stuck to the bandwagon of ppl that voted for filthy i think we would be more likely to kill a wolf if we have correctly assumed one of them is a wolf.
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04-27-2011 , 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dhcg86
level?
i guess you have been posting a bit, my bad sorry
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04-27-2011 , 03:00 PM
hey znark, I'm still waiting for you to answer what this "other stuff" you based your vote on for me was?
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04-27-2011 , 03:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbq
gj killing filthy for no real reason. We just lost a very important villager due to some people who had just made up their minds about who to vote for and refused to change it even after it was pointed out to them that their vote didn't make sense.
That's exactly what I meant when I apologized for doing so much damage last night. I was not only part of this movement - he basically died through my hand when I foolishly tried to save myself.

I also misunderstood the rules last night - I thought the angel could also save someone from getting lynched, so I thought it would be safe to kill him.

Now, I feel like I've done a lot of damage to the village, so I need to make up for that somehow. At the moment, I even wish the wolfs had picked me last night since I don't want you guy to waste another precious villager vote on me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbq
To make things even better, we also know there's a doublevoter in that group of players, but unfortunately I have a feeling there's not gonna be a whole bunch of wolves in there either. I doubt many wolves would "out" themselves by voting for filthy, because as i said it's a vote that just doesn't make sense if you're a villager. A careful wolf would probably be aware of this. We gotta decide how hard to go after the people who voted for filthy, who to wagon in that group, but we also need to pay close attention to the people who wisely decided to stay off that wagon
Maybe we can also learn some more things about the wolfs because of this incident.

I also have the feeling that this incident gave us a very strong read on the doublevoter being one of the more inexperienced guys. That's basically the only logical explanation to how this could have happen in the first place.

A true leader who have immediately taken the alpha role and make the pack follow his orders. This did not happen - it would have been so easy for the wolfs to protect the secret.

It was very foolish from the pack to keep the alpha vote on filthy - in a situation that close, I think the best strategy would have been to either chase the entire pack on me or for the alpha to switch to one of the low vote guys.
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04-27-2011 , 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Polycarpus
About the kills last night:
If enough villagers pulled filth's wagon, the wolves could have layed low and let us hang each other. Not sure this what happened, but it's hard to find out. At least several voters for filth will be villagers as well.

On the other hand: Punch Dancer was a clear pick from the wolves. They killed him for a reason. So if we can find some arguments about why PD might have been killed, they are probably more reliable than reads we get from the kill on filthy.
I don't have a lot of time right now, but could somebody multiquote all of PD's posts in the right order? Thanx already.
this post makes me believe that polycarpus is not a wolf.

I think all the talk about narrowing down our range on who are wolves isnt neccessarilly more important than narrowing down who isnt a wolf.

And Bob Ross is definitely still a serial killer .
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04-27-2011 , 03:07 PM
oh and I think it is important to see who is voting together a bunch. Seems to me like good wolf strategy would be to have most of the pack vote 1 way and then 1 or 2 others go against the grain. There will be some type of mentallity that they will all share, we just have to find it. Right now its definitely in their favor for most of them to lay low so I think that most of the people with high post counts will not be wolves, but will most likely be villagers or special roles.
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04-27-2011 , 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by earl
Pretty sure its alot better for us to lynch the serial killer than to potentially lynch a villager, the longer the serial killer is alive-> the shorter the game is going to be -> the less time we have to find the wolves/get patterns that might reveal the wolves. Not to mention with 2 night kills going around that doubles the chance of angel\Seer being sniped. which is our biggest tools for wolfhunting. We are also probably going to have to lynch the serial killer at some point since I dont see wolves targeting him specifically
Well, if you seriously think I'm the serial killer and that taking out the killer is such a high priority to the village ...

Do you think taking down the serial killer is a high enough priority for the village to be worth outing the seer tomorrow morning ?

If you think it is and it is me, then I can only get one single kill if you leave me alive before the seer can out me.
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04-27-2011 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackoneill
Well, if you seriously think I'm the serial killer and that taking out the killer is such a high priority to the village ...

Do you think taking down the serial killer is a high enough priority for the village to be worth outing the seer tomorrow morning ?

If you think it is and it is me, then I can only get one single kill if you leave me alive before the seer can out me.
seers can't out serial killer. serial killer looks like a vanilla villager
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04-27-2011 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackoneill
Well, if you seriously think I'm the serial killer and that taking out the killer is such a high priority to the village ...

Do you think taking down the serial killer is a high enough priority for the village to be worth outing the seer tomorrow morning ?

If you think it is and it is me, then I can only get one single kill if you leave me alive before the seer can out me.
the seer can't see the serial killer but other than that, wtf are you talking about
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04-27-2011 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackoneill
Well, if you seriously think I'm the serial killer and that taking out the killer is such a high priority to the village ...

Do you think taking down the serial killer is a high enough priority for the village to be worth outing the seer tomorrow morning ?

If you think it is and it is me, then I can only get one single kill if you leave me alive before the seer can out me.
lets assume I am right in calling you the serial killer, then thats a great idea, lets just have the seer use his seeing on you tomorrow when when we(i) already have a pretty good inkling of what you are, AND let the seer out himself by pointing out that you are the serial killer. Waitwhat.
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04-27-2011 , 03:21 PM
the serial killer is not a high priority imo. hes probably just as likely (proportionally) to kill wolves as villas so who cares if he stays aroud for a while
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04-27-2011 , 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by chadders0
i like the mers logic, but if he is a villager then the wolves will kill him soon right?? and if he survives more then a few days he will get insta lynched right...
or maybe the wolves will leave him knowing it is bound to look suspicios if he survives a few days and potentially save themselves a lynching of the group on one day
Regarding Mers ....

Well, I have the feeling he's an experienced guy, he knows what to do ... and as a teacher, he also knows how to tell people what to do.

So let's assume for a second that the doublevoter is in fact a very inexperienced guy - as it seems at the moment - wouldn't someone like Mers immediately claim and take over pack leadership if he was a wolf ?

If I remember correctly - going back is a bit difficult since I'm on my smartphone - Mers voted for that Kurru guy and never changed it, right ?

It simply doesn't make any sense at all for the pack leader to vote against their own doublevoter and expose the secret by doing so.

And who else is still in this game who's a true leader ? Filthy is gone and was exposed as a vanilla villager. PD maybe, but he was also killed and revealed as being a vanilla villager.

I also don't think Mers is that guy who'd blindly follow some more inexperienced pack leader - he'd claim pack leadership for himself. So if Mers is a wolf, then who's their leader ???
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04-27-2011 , 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by yaqh
the serial killer is not a high priority imo. hes probably just as likely (proportionally) to kill wolves as villas so who cares if he stays aroud for a while
i agree.

Yaqh who are your wagons? you've been a bit noncommittal...
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04-27-2011 , 03:25 PM
Oh, did not know seer could not get peeked. Wow, now I am not sure what to think anymore. EITHER Jack is realtroll and does not know the rules of his own role. OR this was an attempt to level. (or he is not serial killer obv which is possible but im still sticking to my guns)

Actually now that I think about it it actually could pretty easily be a level. Why would he bring the seer into this out of nowhere when he does not fit into the scenario at all, unless he was desperately trying to show he is ignorant about him about the seer not being able to see the serial killer, which the serial killer obviously should know. He has probably planned to use this level as soon as he saw the serial killer could not be seen as serial killer, but kind of jumped the gun on this one making up a scenario that does not make sense at all. Obviously I could be wrong with all of this and jackie just is not inclined to make sense in general, but my soul read alarm is going off the charts.
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04-27-2011 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackoneill
So if Mers is a wolf, then who's their leader ???
your posts make me chuckle.

can i give you some advice? read carefully through the faq. understand all the rules and strategies. and then post. because right now you're just writing nonsense and it's making people vote for you.
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04-27-2011 , 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by earl
jackie just is not inclined to make sense in general,
this is my read
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04-27-2011 , 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Ross
I'm being voted because I've stuck with my vote and didn't hinder to pressure, I'd love to hear from someone how I sound so wolfy, because I think my argument for hookt is more solid than anyone's and no one seems to care about that. Everyone else wants to base their votes on "not being active" or one of the billions that voted for filthy but didn't change their vote. Well maybe the ones who changed their votes are wolves because they knew the villagers kept going after filthy.
I don't get how it would be super solid. If hookt was a wolf he'd be happy to have us lynch filthy coz he'd also know that filthy is a villager, so it wouldn't make sense to try to save him. If anything then those who unvoted filthy are less suspicious coz they could easily have lynched him as a villager successfully. Sure, one of them might be the doublevoter who got scared about getting found out but that's just one out of seven of them.
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04-27-2011 , 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by coffeeyay
your posts make me chuckle.

can i give you some advice? read carefully through the faq. understand all the rules and strategies. and then post. because right now you're just writing nonsense and it's making people vote for you.
Well, if you guys absolutely want to waste another vote ...

Vote: jackoneill
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04-27-2011 , 03:38 PM
dont vote for yourself dude jesus christ...
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04-27-2011 , 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by coffeeyay
i agree.

Yaqh who are your wagons? you've been a bit noncommittal...
yea well nobody stands out too much, altho we need to focus on the hard evidence we do have. primarily that's who voted for filthy yesterday. it was a terrible decision for the village and that really should have been obvious to people paying attention, so that vote still looks really wolfy to me. not to mention at least one double voter has to be in there.

i agree that bobross is a pretty good wagon. it seemed like he was pretty quiet yesterday and only popped up in force to defend himself, and most of his defense was just trying to point at other people.

my vote's still on jack, tho, and i think it's reasonable. i don't really buy the chewbacca defense thing he has going on right now. wouldnt surprise me if he was a wolf and he was so out of line yesterday that other wolfs just told him to keep it up. if we do happen to lynch him and he turns up a wolf, we'll definitely want to go back and look at who the people were who said "hes so out of line he can't be a wolf" or w/e.
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04-27-2011 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackoneill
Well, if you guys absolutely want to waste another vote ...

Vote: jackoneill
no we don't wan to waste another vote. If you read my posts I have been vehemently defending you. I'm just frustrated that you keep making incoherent ignorant posts that are implicating you further and making you easy prey for the wolves to wagon.

villagers should NEVER vote on themselves, you always need to defend yourself. stop being silly and incoherent. pick one of the wagons (Bob, IheardJoe, DonJonnie, lolsteamroller) that we have going, give some brief logical basis to why you picked that person and not one of the other three, and help out your fellow villagers.

don't overcomplicate things
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04-27-2011 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeeyay
this is my read
Prob haven't read all of them coz I've been busy today and this thread keeps growing and growing but in general jackoneill bases his arguments on a lot of presumptions that sound probable but aren't really that likely to be true. e.g. why would the uncovered doublevoter not be a wolf? Killing filthy is def a big win for the wolves but imo it's far easier for them to put one doublevoter who could be a wolf on filthy's wagon instead of two std wolves. Also if jackoneill is the doublevoter, that action also saves an important asset for the wolves, while he can just go around the thread posting tons of theories that are gonna be interpreted as BS as they are now. If jack is a level it's a very clever move by the wolves
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