Hokies 01 video from husng
12th minute
HokieGreg vs 19_Amex_84

Villian limps the button. Hero checks with 72.
Flop comes 659 and goes Check Check.
Turn is J and Hokie says he will barrel turn and river because there are tons of hands he will be calling the turn and folding the river. Now I agree with that. But the river comes 2 and Hokie still barrels. I feel like check calling here is much better because now we have showdown value and we can let opponent bluff his missed draws and that there is no worse hand calling us. Is opponent going to fold a pair of 5 he might have checked and the called the turn with? What do you think about this?

yea thats a good point but otr we are turning that sdv into a bluff by folding out 5x, 6x, even 9x sometimes. Yes a lot of his range is missed draws that we are ahead of, but folding out his marginal pairs that he calls the turn with is pretty valuable imo. Our line looks pretty strong especially on this scary texture so we have good FE against this part of his range

I havent watched the video but theres probably a good chance hero assumed his opponent is unlikely to bluff missed draws a large % based on his tendencies so far in the match....which would mean its unlikely were gaining that much value by bluff catching.

When deciding to bluff catch on the river its not just about the combos of missed draws or the likelihood of villian to bluff, but a combination of both

As andees alluded to, context is important here.

Good post/question though, which video is this from and around what timestamp?

this bet turn bet river spot is good but I've found that in hypers no one ever folds here while in turbos they fold more than enough... anyone feeling the same way? I don't really understand why.. obv vague..

I guess at hypers generally people have a more aggressive style, even though imo there really shouldn't exist a difference between playing 25bb at turbo speed or at hyper. The point is, if once people see "oh gosh, it's hyper!" they just go into insane aggro style, we have to adjust accordingly. Someone who has that in mind probably will consider your bluffing % to be wider in hypers rather than in turbos (even if the eff stacksizes are identical) and might call you lighter then.

I'm playing superturbos at $15 only, but what I've seen generally is that there are way more aggrotards than in turbo or reg speeds.

Sorry, I'm dumb for not reading that timestamp, my bad on that one.

The commentary doesn't really clarify for us, but it does seem like Hokie was just dead set on 2 barreling because 2 barreling is often good in this spot.

Does the fact that he rivered 2x change this? I think it can and it may be better to check call here.

If the river were 3h, then I think a bet would clearly be best in this spot.

I didn't watch the entire 10 minutes beforehand though, but did not see anything to make me believe the opponent has tons of 6/5x in his range and less draws, and even Hokie said tons of draws call the turn and fold the river (so I don't think he thought the opponent didn't have draws/bluff potential on the river).

Depends mostly on the polarization of villains cbetting range

If villain always checks back 5x and most 6x on the flop do you still bet the river (keep in mind Hokie stated he expects villain to call the turn with a lot of draws/non pairs)?

How stationy he is becomes much more of an important variable in our river decision.

In a vacuum I would think it has to be really close

what about when spade river comes?

ya i like check/calling river.

i made that video over 2 years ago . i'd watch my last 15-20 videos or so.