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30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS 30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS

03-22-2012 , 09:56 AM
Villain is a winning player according to SS (~3k profit this year), but other than that I have no reads (we're only a few hands in).
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
Hero ($550)
($450)

Dealt to Hero Q 9

raises to $40, Hero calls $20

FLOP ($80) K T K

Hero checks, bets $40, Hero raises to $100, calls $60

TURN ($280) K T K 4

Hero bets $340

Pre obv. standard.

I make a small c/r OTF because I think most regs are cbetting close to 100% of their hands here and I'm much more likely to have a T than he is, we also like a whole load of turn cards.

When he calls the c/r he probably doesn't have total air (even if he thinks I'm FOS), but I can still see him flatting a lot more than just a Ten or King (and he 3bet shoves some % of them.

I'm not sure I like my shove on such a blank turn, but I hate check/giving up, as as we're an unknown I think the overbet looks pretty strong.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-22-2012 , 10:07 AM
Flop is good but once he calls Im never continuing the bluff.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-22-2012 , 10:12 AM
You're c/r on the flop is arguably ok, but I don't like the shove on the turn. Even if he called the c/r with nothing, he still has about 70% equity with any Ace. Your shove on the turn is hoping that he's FOS. I'd check/fold turn, find a better spot.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-22-2012 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjwhit
Flop is good but once he calls Im never continuing the bluff.
this obv, i think turn is way too spewy tbh
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-23-2012 , 05:39 AM
I wouldn't cr.Might have the best hand,any J/Q are good,9 might be good,can rep the A.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-23-2012 , 08:15 AM
i think hand is fine. c/r is good we'll probably have a good amount of fold equity, and I think there's a good amount of stuff he'll flat and then fold the turn with.

Jamming turn seems good because we want to try to fold out his air and our gutshot means we don't have to be as successful as with pure air. If you have some reads that he's not able to bluff much than b/f the turn small seems really good too since our range at that point will look quite strong and so we should get a similar amount of fold equity as jamming if villain is unable/unwilling to jam over as a bluff.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-23-2012 , 09:04 AM
I kinda like the way you played it, but yeah, betting small on turn is a good option too. This turn card isn't a good one to bluff at, but you can still fold out his floats by betting smaller, and Kx Tx aren't gonna fold no matter what.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote
03-23-2012 , 09:04 AM
Also, c/c flop is a good option as mentioned previously. Thing is you should be willing to (donk) bluff some rivers.
30HT: gutshot OOP on paired, possible FPS Quote

      
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