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HT: betsizing on double paired river HT: betsizing on double paired river

10-02-2012 , 12:05 PM
    Poker Stars, $29.37 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14059002

    Hero (BB): 540 (27 bb)
    SB: 460 (23 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 Q
    SB raises to 40, Hero calls 20

    Flop: (80) 9 3 K (2 players)
    Hero checks, SB bets 40, Hero calls 40

    Turn: (160) K (2 players)
    Hero checks, SB checks

    River: (160) 9 (2 players)
    Hero bets ???



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    Villain is completely unknown. Once he checks back turn I can't see him bluffing this river like ever so I think we have to lead for value even though we're expecting him to fold a ton. In game I went for a small lead (65ish) thinking that it'd be easier for him to call with Ace and maybe an occasional Queen high. Looking back I think a bigger sizing (115?) would probably have been better as it looks bluffier and also obv only has to work half as often.

    Thoughts? Is anyone checking and hoping villain bluffs or decides to bet an ace?
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-02-2012 , 12:29 PM
    def betting, Id bet ~90
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-02-2012 , 12:40 PM
    i'd prob bet 80 or 120, not sure what's better.
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-02-2012 , 05:14 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by yay
    i'd prob bet 80 or 120, not sure what's better.
    With t100 you can't go wrong
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-02-2012 , 05:48 PM
    well you could go a little wrong
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-02-2012 , 08:19 PM
    125 of your finest chips.
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-03-2012 , 06:02 AM
    Tbh, I would sometimes (mostly without history on villain) jam it and rep one of the million busted draws out there and make him hero call it with Ax. Than again, I would also do the same with my busted draws in that spot sometimes aswell as Kx 9x hands. It helps your image, puts him in a tough spot with Ax and you start creating some dynamic. If he calls with Ax he's most likely to get frustrated (people tend to get really frustrated once their hero call fails), if he somehow calls and you show a busted draw he will mark you as a fish and next time you will know what he thinks of you and will be able to play your FH for max value shoving there.

    Than again, I maybe be overthinking and betting 80-120 seems fine aswell.

    Would love to hear some opinions on shoving our hand in this spot as it looks interesting (atleast to me)
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-03-2012 , 07:42 AM
    well I think overbetting is bad because most likely he wants to fold
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-03-2012 , 09:37 AM
    I'd bet 80, get value from Ax/Qx. Lots of Qx and worse might call 80 but are probably folding to 100+.
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-04-2012 , 08:24 AM
    yeah bet like half pot
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-04-2012 , 12:02 PM
    t91
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-04-2012 , 12:08 PM
    with 90 you rarely ever induce and you dont get max value. so either bet small or go big like 140-160 and let him herocall.
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-04-2012 , 12:21 PM
    Why would you induce that river? Its been a long time since i´ve seen an opponent bluffshove those kind of rivers. Bluffshoving just doesnt rep anything here imo. SB never acted so he is neither going to show up with a huge hand on river nor is he willing to ship just you bet small.

    But im really interested what others here think about the possibility of a small bet inducing villain, if it would work?
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote
    10-04-2012 , 03:11 PM
    80 looks like a value bet, 90 like a bluff.
    HT: betsizing on double paired river Quote

          
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