3rd hand, villain is losing at -17% ROI over 150 games at 3$ avg stake.




call?

if you call turn, yes

Pfff, given his betsizing I think we can/have to call. I don't think we are good here >30% of the time tho, but we only need 22.5%, but still blegh.

Edit: wasn't ready yet.

@Crazyriver: so if he jams u call? (....................)

does that mean yes and I shouldnt be asking?

Seems close against a losing player. I mean the flop is really dry yet he continues on turn and river, so this can be 54 or A5 type hands a decent amount of time and I don't think he will play 3x or 2x this way a ton. There should me some pp's and weaker Qx in his range though, which makes some sense given his line.

All in all, I might look at the odds and call in-game, but don't expect to be good that often. That ace on the river is actually not a safe card, so we can't apply "we can't fold on this river after calling turn" logic here imo.

Yes (given the sizes)
If we think we were strong on the turn then there's actually not a big change on the board texture that would change the strength of our hand vs his. So if we're ahead on the turn we're very often ahead on the river, aren't we?
I just don't see a reason for calling this turn if we are going to fold on the river. The turn is the point where we need to decide. So here I prefer just to jam the turn or fold.

I think his range is kinda bluff heavy because people just love to c/r the obvious dry boards. As to whether he has sets/2 pair/straights in his range, yes sure, but I don't think they take up a big enough part of his range to fold the turn.

He set up the stacks perfectly to shove the river. Yet he bets leaving a ******ed amount behind, which I think shows way more strength than him shoving. But I tend to believe a shove would be a more nuts/air kinda range, still with probably more air than nuts. The ace could be perceived as a scare card for him, which means that he would be checking part of his value range (some pp, some Qx, some weird pairs).

So I call, but don't have a good feeling about it. Still think it's a call although I believe with this sizing it's going to be strong hands more often, but not sure what he thinks it's strong. He could have Q8 or 99/TT or something like this and some bluffs (complete air, a pair he decided to turn into a bluff).

There are situations where we can c/c turn and (often correctly) c/f on blank river with hands like 2nd pair. This is not because the river might have improved his range, but due to the fact that most people don't triple barrel as often as they do double barrel. In other words, his perceived range does improve when he triple barrels, even though the river card per se doesn't help.

I'm not saying with 100% certainty that this is one of those situations, but again, after c/r on flop people double barrel less often than single barrel on turn. And that ace can actually change things quite a bit too.

Meh we only beat a complete bluff. Think folding is best.