Wondering whether this shove is +EV. Villain has been aggressive seems like a reg, c-bets every flop so far (~10 hands). No history at all. In hindsight his near 2/3 pot bet on the turn seems very strong, but I still put his range pretty wide to include suited connectors which paired (89s, 78s, 67s 56s) and also there are flush draws which can play it this way. I felt with the equity from the flushdraw and 2 overs if he has a 6 or 3 made this a profitable semi-bluff but when I look over sessions I question some decisions like this one. Should I just be folding here?

Seat 1: Villain (560 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (440 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7 K]
Villain: raises 20 to 40
Hero: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [3 8 6]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 35
Hero: calls 35
*** TURN *** [3 8 6] [A]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 95
Hero: raises 270 to 365 and is all-in

great hand for calling the turn barrel with good equity and sd also the A turn is a good card for your opponent range not just that it hits his range a lot more than yours he most likely value bet thinner and call your shove pretty lite bcs you dont get much credit .

Why am I calling the turn with incorrect pot odds to see a river that bricks 70% of the time? What am I doing if a heart/King doesn't hit, c/folding? I give away more than half my stack. Also there is the possibility that he puts me on this sort of draw and c/f the completed flush on the river destroying my implied odds, although this shallow I may get a call if I shoved.

Fold OTT, if his cbet % is high, xr flop?

Never folding the turn. Well actually I may fold if villain shows AhXh.

Do you play any value hands this way on the turn, do you do this with any weaker flushdraws that dont have some showdown versus air like 94s? What does your calling range look like on this turn?

I just know nothing about HU poker it seems... I don't get how you can follow these draws and not end up chipless within 20 hands... calling the turn costs you 95 chips to get paid ~18% of the time... that means you lose ~4 times out of 5 95*4 = 380 chips. Then you hit the 5th time and get to double up your stack of 60 chips... that's ignoring what you already spent to get here. The only way this works is if you get lucky and hit the 1st or 2nd time AND he pays you off. Please I'm begging can someone explain why this is a good play? There's a fundamental point I'm missing here and I'm dying to know what it is.

k high has sdv, hes polarized on the turn

+ I see villain quite rarely barreling river /w air tbh (or doing it really strange).
So either x/r flop or flat turn now.

you are ignoring implied odds and showdown value unimproved or hitting a pair. apart from that your maths sound weird, what do you mean with "double up your stack of 60 chips"??

Yes my math is oversimplified for sure but I don't get why that negates is completely. Hero starts with 440 and plays a hand that missed 4/5 times at a cost of 380 (actually way more given the previous streets, but lets assume he wins a few hands in between and gets some back, or that his king does win at showdown a couple of times). 440-380 = 60 (given all other things being equal which is impossible to predict, it could be far better or far worse by the time he gets the draw that hits).

So best case hero gets villain all in for one of those 5 tries... you are doubling up and the more times you fail chasing that draw the less chips you have to gii with meaning the less you finally get to win.

I know I oversimplify a lot by assuming things will balance out (e.g. you might hit your flush twice in a row... but villain might also fold both times and you don't get the implied payoff you were hoping to). I'm am unsure where the "leak" is in my simplifications. Obviously you guys know far more about what makes it a good play to call turn as you probably have twice the knowledge/experience that I have if not 10x.

Just noticed this is a hyper rather than turbo or standard, would that make much of a difference as you have less time to wait for something better to come along? Or is the play standard across all speeds at the low blind levels?

theres no difference between turbo or hyper other than stack size

check shove flop?

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