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$30 HT couple hands

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08-01-2012 , 11:48 AM

hakunamatata998

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 526

Readless. I was going to barrel most river cards to fold out 5x and 4x, is it a good spot for it? What about river decision?

Poker Stars, $29.37 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13630602

Hero (BB): 540 (27 bb)
SB: 460 (23 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7

SB raises to 40, Hero calls 20

Flop: (80) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: (80) A

(2 players)
Hero bets 50, SB calls 50

River: (180) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets 120, Hero folds

Last edited by hakunamatata998; 08-01-2012 at 11:50 AM. Reason: sorry for misleading title

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08-01-2012 , 12:48 PM

ohly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,696

i am not a big fan of those bets relying on the fold equity of future streets, for example leading this turn has like 5% FE.
then you hit the nutlow rivercard to barrel, no way he is folding a pair now.

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08-01-2012 , 02:06 PM

coffeeyay

See my staking thread

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,536

wp. imo we have tons of fe on turn, tons of air checks back that flop so his range will be weak and A is scary. throw in that we can barrel off his weak pairs on good rivers, we have an over card to the board other than the A, and an over to the low cards, and its a great bet imo.

River sucks, c/f looks great. we still beat some hands and we don't fold out really anything.

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08-01-2012 , 03:57 PM

mela

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 3,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by ohly

What, we have like 5% FE on A turn?

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08-01-2012 , 04:10 PM

ohly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,696

very interesting that we have such different opinions about that. villain minraised and checked a pretty dry flop, i might be exaggerating with the 5% number, but this should weigh his range towards Ax, Kx and mediocre pair hands alot, no?

you can always argue that villain is unknown, but there should be a functional dependency between opening range and cbetting frequency, i.e. villains who open alot of hands preflop are prone to cbetting alot with air, so that should naturally weigh a checking back range towards the hands i listed above.

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08-01-2012 , 05:25 PM

genher

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,931

I agree with ohly, this play is overdone and our FE is very low here. The Xbehind range doesn't fold OTT often. We are not very credible here (Esp as there more Ax in villain's range than Hero's one). I guess we only need villain to fold ~40% of the time but IMO it's also important to think that when you lead the turn after a Xed flop you will have to barrel the river when you get called in a lot of spots.

Barelling the river is even worst in this spot OBV as now even the 4's call. On an other river barelling would work often but is expensive as you need to bet quite big on the river (~>2/3p).

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08-01-2012 , 07:28 PM

Il_First_Il

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,400

It doesn't seem a great spot to lead turn, I mean we have K high, check and hope to be good otr if the action goes check-check till the river card

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08-03-2012 , 10:10 PM

Maruchan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,930

Quote:

Originally Posted by ohly

you can always argue that villain is unknown, but there should be a functional dependency between opening range and cbetting frequency, i.e. villains who open alot of hands preflop are prone to cbetting alot with air, so that should naturally weigh a checking back range towards the hands i listed above.

I appreciate this point. Thank you sir

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08-03-2012 , 11:20 PM

mela

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 3,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by ohly

Yeah, Ax and Kx are good part of his range, but sometimes they just give up on this kinda flop for no good reason, for example with hands like 97o. Or they can check back with like 74o, call turn donk and fold to river donk. If we know he is a good/competent reg we can expect his cbetting range on this flop to be close to 90%+ (I still don't think why they should check back with A or K high btw), but here we're readless and it's fine to assume he has some weak hands as well in his checking back range.

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08-04-2012 , 04:28 AM

#10

yay

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 3,059

some regs just don't cbet alot, even with air sometimes. i can see why someone would want to checkback Ax Kx otf, since it's like a textbook c/r spot for us with air or backdoor equity.

also, if we are villain and choose to checkback some weak sd value here, should we shove turn to a lead?

edit: vs unknown i'm def betting turn, betting scary rivers, too. worst river obv, so i'm c/f.

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