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3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? 3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river?

08-01-2016 , 01:23 PM
b/f river for value ? If he already made his hand on turn (Q, straight) and c/r me on river I fold, but I could have made some more chips from 7x, 9x here.

Am I thinking correctly? Thanks

PokerStars - $3.32+$0.18|15/30 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 52.17 BB (VPIP: 94.12, PFR: 64.71, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 19)
Hero (SB): 47.83 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 2 9 7
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB

Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets 4.83 BB, BB calls 4.83 BB

River: (18.67 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler:
BB shows 8 9 (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 14%, Flop 19%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows T T (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)
(Pre 86%, Flop 81%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 18.67 BB
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote
08-01-2016 , 03:49 PM
Hey man,

Nice hand. Honestly can't fault your decisions or sizing at all pre-flop, flop and turn. Not sure what you mean by 'if he made his hand on the turn (Q, straight)' though, it's impossible to have a straight on this board. I don't think he has a lot of Qx here. Firstly, it's a QQ board, so that greatly reduces the chances of him also holding a Q. Secondly, it's very unlikely he has Q2-Q6 because a) he shouldn't be calling pre with those (unless suited) and b) there's no reason he would have called two decent sized bets with them. Also pretty much rules out Q8 and QT (you also have blockers to that) and judging by the fact he's 3-bet 2-3 times in 19 hands id say it's highly likely he raises QJ, QK and AQ before the flop. I also think if he calls pre with Qx of diamonds, he should always raise a good flush draw and an overcard. Basically, there's no Qx in his range here.

With that said, I think it's really important you bet again here. You could go one of two ways. Either bet small to price in a 9x or 7x which is what I would put him on after considering the above. Maybe 8.5BB. Alternatively, this isn't a bad spot to over bet the pot. A whole bunch of draws missed, and the board paired which is likely to get more calls, because he'll think it unlikely you have a Qx. In essence, when you do this you're trying to rep the missed draw. You would have played xdxd or T8 exactly the same way so it's a really good spOt to overbet. Maybe 20BB. Seeing as your range here is perceived to contain a lot of missed draws, villain will put you on a bluff often and occasionally hero call you. You polarise your range. Based on the above, we know his range is missed draws which aren't calling any amount, 9x a lot, and occasionally 7x (although there are less of these in his range. Unless he's taken a completely strange line by slow-playing a huge hand like a set (this is so rare you shouldn't think about it), we know we're ahead. Overbetting and repping a missed draw is optimal here I think, but betting small to price him in is ok and more standard I suppose.
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote
08-02-2016 , 01:35 AM
Don't know what I was thinking with the straight, obv it can't be lol....

Thanks a lot, your words make a lot of sense.
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote
08-02-2016 , 08:27 PM
Even though the turn is an over-card, on the turn you are targetting almost the same hands as you were targetting on the flop.

So there are a lot of draws and one pair hands that will call a turn bet.

I would therefore bet bigger, somewhere around 6bb into 9bb. Don't expect too many folds when villain has a flush draw.

The river is great. 9x will call any bet, but I'd bet a bit weaker to get called by 7x and sometimes 2x and low PPs, and to induce a bluff from all missed draws.

You can only bet to induce on the river if you have a reason to think it will work, and you have to know before you bet that you'll call a raise.

Something like that, I haven't played in ages.
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote
08-03-2016 , 01:52 AM
PF, Flop and Turn is ok. River is bet/fold. Bet to get value from 9 or 7.
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote
08-03-2016 , 04:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyyy
PF, Flop and Turn is ok. River is bet/fold. Bet to get value from 9 or 7.
Personally, I think it's almost impossible for him to have us beat here, just wondering what you think he could have just would justify a fold? He barely ever has Qx for sure.
3.5$ turbo - missed value on the river? Quote

      
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