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3.5$ HT 76s 3.5$ HT 76s

07-04-2013 , 11:42 AM
Poker Stars $3.40+$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 2252137
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Hero (BTN/SB): t510 25.50 BBs
BB: t490 24.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 6 7
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20

Flop: (t80) 8 4 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB calls t40

Turn: (t160) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t100, BB raises to t260, Hero?

Enemy is unk, 1 hand he folded to a cbt, second mr/c ATo pre and got a split vs my higher A.

Hand gameplan:
Flop - easy value bet.
Turn - I assume villain is bad (as every unk at those stakes) so it's an easy barrel for me, not expecting to get c/r lightly. I size it a little bigger to rep a turned K and set up an easy river shove on most runouts. I get c/r which obviously means no good but I honestly don't know what to do against this sizing. I want to know what is max EV.

Even if I give him a nutty range of Kx only I still have 2:1 vs that range and he's giving me a very good pot odds to draw. My options:
-fold and be left with a healthy stack
-call and fold river unimproved (obv) which allows him to play perfectly vs my completed draws (but I doubt avg opponent at those stakes is able to do that)
-reshove all-in

Once again, I don't care about variance, nor "wait for a better spot" response I only care what is max EV. During the game I took what I think is the worst route (3) but now I'm heavily shifting towards 2.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 12:17 PM
bet smaller turn for value, as played call his check raise, fold unimproved river
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 12:26 PM
Nope, I'd ship it. You've likely got 18 outs to the best hand and some of the time you actually have the best hand OTT. Calling off half your stack with the intention of folding to a river bet is just bad.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:01 PM
yeah I think you prob are right, ship turn
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:11 PM
I really don't see how we can have the best hand when he raises turn nai and see nothing wrong with calling then folding river. If villain shows you KQ face up that is the best play.

I would either check turn or bet smaller.

I think the biggest flaw in your thought process is trying to turn a very good hand into a bluff.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by watergun7
I think the biggest flaw in your thought process is trying to turn a very good hand into a bluff.
This is interesting. I mean, I don't really feel like I'm bluffing the turn but I do plan on bluffing almost any river (except like paired boards) and I think this will get him to fold an 8 most of the time or a better 7 like 100%.

Btw, I shoved, bricked and he had K4o.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:28 PM
He doesnt have many 8x in his range. And you are essentially trying to fold a 7. You are also getting value from almost nothing, so if you aren't bluffing on the turn what are you doing?
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:37 PM
OK, I can see that not barreling this turn with as many outs is a good play (although at first glance it appears to be a good card to barrel). But once we have bet aren't we committed. Can we really put 70% of our stack in with a draw and fold if we miss.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote
07-04-2013 , 01:46 PM
Ok, I guess bad wording on my part cause you are right I am bluffing. It's just that I don't expect an average opponent at this level to c/c 2 streets with complete airball so it's obviously fine if he folds to a bet. Regarding how many 8x he has, that is debatable, I agree that he c/r flop with that part of this range I also think many opponents at this stake underplay they made hands. I didn't really mention this, cause it's probably not much, but this is actually a fifth hand of the match. He has limped his first button with some low off-s gappers and went to the sd without ever stabbing the pot so I assumed he's on a passive side.
3.5$ HT 76s Quote

      
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