PokerStars - 20/40 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 714
BB: 786

Hero posts SB 20, BB posts BB 40

Pre Flop: (pot: 60) Hero has 3 7

Hero raises to 80, BB calls 40

Flop: (160, 2 players) T 4 J
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (160, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets 120, BB calls 120

River: (400, 2 players) 4
BB checks, Hero bets 514 and is all-in,
Oppo is unknown. Probably should have bet smaller, because he will likely call and fold the same stuff. The plan was to bet every river that doesn't complete a straight and every completed flush draw. What do you think about the turn/river line?

I don't mind bet turn bet river with this combo in general, but this seems like a pretty nut bad river to bluff for us so I'm not sure I would bluff this hand.

I don't know. I think he would likely fold a 4 with my turn size. I would not bet any other river card that paired

looks fine to me, river is not that bad, its a blank and Id also expect most 4x folding turn, and Im expecting a lot folds from Jx, Tx.

I think it's real easy for villain to massively overfold river. Villain folds out most 4X to turn bet. When villain does hit trips on river, plenty of villains will donk river. Plenty of villains probe turn with QX too often, so have too few QX in x/c range. I like the barrel, even though with block some combos we're trying to fold out.

I prefer to have this combo in my limping range for multiple reasons:

1) SPR will be really low once you get called and therefore you won't have much room postflop
2) hand is disconnected
3) even if you flop something, it will be quite weak hand usually
4) people will 3bet wider at this stack depth

But I might be biased and raising will have its merit. I think, that Hokie told me in one of the strategical topics, that minraising such hands even at this stack depth makes sense and people won't adjust correctly.

So it all depends on general players' tendencies.

As played I like it, but I have a question too: do we need to pick som unnatural bluffs in this spot, too? And isn't blocking his busted draws a issue here? I understand, that we need to bluff some of them and this combo seems like a great candidate, as we unblock his busted straight draws and it's a bottom of our range.

Another question: what do you guys think of using a smaller turn probe sizing with a wider range? Yes, villain gets a better price in order to get to showdown, but we can abuse that, as people will call with bunch of weird hands. The reasong I am asking is - because I am trying this strategy in practice. Essentially I probe smaller on the turn and bigger on the river.

And I do this for three reasons:

1) people don't check back enough strong hands on the flop
2) I can value bet thin
3) I can bluff with wider range

But again, I might be wrong on this one. As people still trap with some hands.

I don't think it matters much whether you limp or minraise 73s here.

No, we don't need to pick unnatural bluffs. We aren't barreling river with this combo for balance. We are barreling river simply bc we're betting it's the max EV play.

Blocking villains folding range is only going to make or break this bluff being profitable if jamming/giving up are sort of close. I think a good amount of players are going to be overfolding this river by quite a bit (mainly bc their strat breaks down on earlier nodes like I said before), and few players are going to be overcalling significantly. Solvers often give up with bluffs that block folding range significantly, but if you look at the actual EV of bet vs check it's likely pretty close in most cases.

Small turn probe sizing seems like it would be good vs the population. If you look at solver response to <half pot sizings, people play terrible (too passive, too nitty). You should not limit your strat to only a small turn probe size though - seems like the EV tradeoff would be significant if you did this but I haven't actually tested it. The problem I think you can run into if you are implementing a small sizing is if that means you have like 3-4+ probe sizings - the more sizings you include, the harder it is to implement the strategy accurately. So I prefer a more simple strat, bc I'm an idiot.

This isn't false, but it's an argument that applies to bluffing atc in this spot rather than saying anything about the combo we have. And I don't think we want to be bluffing 100% of our missed combos here, which means we are gonna have to pick some checks.

If your take here is just "massively overbluffing this spot is good vs field so we should bluff," that's a defensible perspective but I'm not sure how useful it is as strategy advice.

This is interesting. What do you think is the right % of barrelling with a semidraw here?

Yea, I just think it's a spot where bluffs are likely to be particularly good vs a pretty high % of the field. So yea I'm overbluffing pretty significantly here until I have a reason not to. I could be wrong - I am not a licensed poker advisor.

imo the most helpful thing to learn for spots you are unsure of, is what kind of hands have good blocking/unblocking attributes. i believe that in this spot it is a good thing not to have an 8 a 9 or a K, but not so great to be holding two clubs. although this analysis is depending on his turn probing behaviour too.

If we decide to semi bluff with some equity I guess that we are always going to block some oppo's hands

I think he meant if you decide to barrel river. You don't want to hold clubs, since they block the Villain folding range.

I think that if you don't want to barrel the river is better to avoid betting the turn