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Old 04-19-2019, 12:46 PM   #301
FREEQONE
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by obviousTROLL View Post
Biased numbers and sharing runbad graphs after running like a sun in the beginning of spins career that matters the most...
Btw, the stagnation of winrate worries me in the first place and I am doing a great job on this issue.

Can't share whole sheet, but part of it.
If we look at ratio vsReg/vsFish hands
Its got worse and worse over time.

Obv there is a part of my bad experiments with styles.
But games become tougher is a fact.

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Old 04-19-2019, 01:58 PM   #302
GTExploit
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

That doesnt look very good. Do you think the reg to fish ratio will be getting any worse? It is also bad that the regs are always getting better quite fast with all these stables. Even fish might be gettinf a bit better slowly over time just general population changes. Do you think there is a future in spins?
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Old 04-21-2019, 02:58 PM   #303
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by FREEQONE View Post
Btw, the stagnation of winrate worries me in the first place and I am doing a great job on this issue.

Can't share whole sheet, but part of it.
If we look at ratio vsReg/vsFish hands
Its got worse and worse over time.

Obv there is a part of my bad experiments with styles.
But games become tougher is a fact.

Besides Q4 of 2017, it looks like your reg to fish ratio is pretty consistent (within 5-10% of each other per quarter).

What is your definition of regs vs fish on the chart?

What is your average tables in each of these quarterly breakdowns? That is important information not present.

Players overall getting better over time is an inarguable fact since the beginning of poker (or the stock market, or pretty much anything people spend time at). It is how you rank compared to that playerbase that is most relevant. In simple terms, if you improve 2x in 5 years and the playerbase improves 1.5x, then the games could be easier for you on year 5 compared to year 1 (technically a few other factors such as edge deterioration as both parties improve).

We can't tell how you are playing skill wise over time though, especially a more eccentric player such as yourself, so the data, while interesting, isn't particularly helpful or meaningful to readers.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:52 PM   #304
ohly
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by ChicagoRy View Post
Besides Q4 of 2017, it looks like your reg to fish ratio is pretty consistent (within 5-10% of each other per quarter).

What is your definition of regs vs fish on the chart?

What is your average tables in each of these quarterly breakdowns? That is important information not present.

Players overall getting better over time is an inarguable fact since the beginning of poker (or the stock market, or pretty much anything people spend time at). It is how you rank compared to that playerbase that is most relevant. In simple terms, if you improve 2x in 5 years and the playerbase improves 1.5x, then the games could be easier for you on year 5 compared to year 1 (technically a few other factors such as edge deterioration as both parties improve).

We can't tell how you are playing skill wise over time though, especially a more eccentric player such as yourself, so the data, while interesting, isn't particularly helpful or meaningful to readers.
values in percentages are: 58.4/50.1/46.6/49.1/47.8

linear regression gives you over a 2% decline per quarter, big deal imo if his data is accurate.
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Old 04-21-2019, 04:21 PM   #305
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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values in percentages are: 58.4/50.1/46.6/49.1/47.8

linear regression gives you over a 2% decline per quarter, big deal imo if his data is accurate.
I was remarking about his 2018 when referring to % games against regs.

But his games played is not nearly the same in these quarters either (linear regression isn't the method to use with such varying hand samples, among other reasons), and for the smaller samples in particular we don't have time of day played distribution #s which we've seen historically in HUSNGs and a few other formats (possibly every format?) to have a major impact on the % of regs that are playing relative to the population.

We also don't have the definition of "fish" or regs and using two broad categories of player is also quite the simplification in most forms of poker, Spins included.

Like I said, the data is interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. Based on your post, it sounds like you'd expect his Q2 to be 45.8% games vs regs. I don't see from this data how that would be any more likely than 48%.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:39 PM   #306
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

Definition fish and regs sorted by alias in PT4 with hard selection.
I add in alias almost all regs and bots and split my DB vs alias players/not in alias.
And obv in my sheet i tracked how some "exploit" lines affected my EVBB/100 against all type of opponents.

Yeah, I agree that not only fish/reg ratio reduce my winrate.
There is a lot of factors like bad strategy, bad run without EV deal.
I'm huuuge underEV and it works simple.
You jam with AK vs 33 in 3max and lose.
In best scenario you could win and continue to play vsFish in HU.
This greatly affects the overall winrate.
At this moment I'm under 1million chips underEV for a whole year.
When you lose every allin and can't continue the game, it's not surprising that winrate is bad.

But I'm not excusing myself.
I made a lot of mistakes and was too lazy.
Poker is getting tougher and you need to spend more time.
I think for people like me, if you do not spend in poker 300-400 hours a month, they have not future.

I dont have even 300 hours a month.
So, I say to myself "Don't expect good results, dude, you lazy dumb"
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Old 04-22-2019, 12:36 PM   #307
ohly
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

i'd rather have no future than no life tbh
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:11 PM   #308
Pakichu777
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

how can you be a million chips under EV? that's 2000BI in chips

you sure you got that correct? that's nowhere near the variance I've seen ever before in CEV from anyone

either you're the unluckiest person in the world, or smth is wrong with your PT4

running 2000BI below EV is one thing, but 1M in chips, wtf

Last edited by Pakichu777; 04-22-2019 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:53 PM   #309
FREEQONE
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by Pakichu777 View Post
how can you be a million chips under EV? that's 2000BI in chips

you sure you got that correct? that's nowhere near the variance I've seen ever before in CEV from anyone

either you're the unluckiest person in the world, or smth is wrong with your PT4

running 2000BI below EV is one thing, but 1M in chips, wtf
Half milli just in HU allins.
Btw, there is interesting moment how 100s and 30-40s ai graph dancing.
at 100s you cant get so much edge in AI's, but at 30-40s you can.
Fishies spewing. And yea, from graph changes angle, i removed GTO AI calls.

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Old 04-22-2019, 06:47 PM   #310
Pakichu777
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

That's really sick. I'm running at EV and biggest swing is 80k chips (on a total of 170k chips). But my WR in BB/100 is twice as high. No idea how I do that. Probably I'm much more risk-averse vs recreationals than you are.

Last edited by Pakichu777; 04-22-2019 at 06:48 PM. Reason: Or I'm just really good at getting strong hands :)
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:13 PM   #311
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by ohly View Post
i'd rather have no future than no life tbh
Having no life isn't forever, it will only take 5 years or so to earn enough capital for passive income. Life begins at 40
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Old Yesterday, 06:39 AM   #312
obviousTROLL
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

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Originally Posted by FREEQONE View Post
Half milli just in HU allins.
Btw, there is interesting moment how 100s and 30-40s ai graph dancing.
at 100s you cant get so much edge in AI's, but at 30-40s you can.
Fishies spewing. And yea, from graph changes angle, i removed GTO AI calls.

Can you once post total graph without using any filters since very first spin hand played?
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Old Yesterday, 09:02 AM   #313
Clickinho
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

+1
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Old Yesterday, 09:23 AM   #314
saintanna23
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

+1
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Old Yesterday, 03:53 PM   #315
Mepslol
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pakichu777 View Post
That's really sick. I'm running at EV and biggest swing is 80k chips (on a total of 170k chips). But my WR in BB/100 is twice as high. No idea how I do that. Probably I'm much more risk-averse vs recreationals than you are.


Might be because you arent 10tabling? How can you even compare that
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Old Today, 03:53 AM   #316
Pl@yerABC
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Re: 222,222 Spin&Go Games: Endurance Challenge

it's great to see that despite a lot of bad variance you are still alive and kicking!
GL!
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