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20$ overbet shove 20$ overbet shove

09-22-2010 , 10:40 AM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 21 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t895)
BB (t2105)

Hero's M: 19.89

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
Hero bets t60, BB calls t30

Flop: (t120) 4, J, K (2 players)
BB bets t60, Hero calls t60

Turn: (t240) 3 (2 players)
BB bets t120, Hero calls t120

River: (t480) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t655 (All-In)

Villain is pretty thinking and aggressive. He's been calling mr with a wide range. This is the first time he donked out and because my cbet frequences were pretty high (almost 100%), I really don't think that Kx or 2 pair in his donking range since he would've ch/r(c) with them.
Is shoving river ok? I just thought that he might hit some SV on river and my Ahigh wasn't good... I think checking back can be an option due to our SV
but still isn't shoving a bit better to fold out his entire range?
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 10:54 AM
This is awful. If you believe that he has worse than TP or 2P, raise the flop. However if he has never donked before this can very well be TP or 2P in my view.

There is no reason for flatting turn. No pot odds, no SD value, no option of calling a 3rd barrel.

River is kinda meh, I agree that jamming is better than checking, but u will get called a lot by very mysterious hands like {K7s, AJo, 22, TJ} and tilt for 3games+
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 12:03 PM
not sure if this is awful or a meh play. it's pretty borderline. on 1 hand, you could have sets/2pair/AK/KQ here. on the other hand, villain is probably never folding Kx+.

totally depends on how much you get him to fold here to make it correct.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borderline
not sure if this is awful or a meh play. it's pretty borderline. on 1 hand, you could have sets/2pair/AK/KQ here. on the other hand, villain is probably never folding Kx+.

totally depends on how much you get him to fold here to make it correct.
on 20s without donkbetting reads this is just burning money, dont u agree?
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 12:40 PM
definitely.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 12:41 PM
Fold the turn. He's calling with a J on the river almost every time.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 12:52 PM
The only hand you are folding with this river shove is Q10, maybe 910. He is def calling with Kx, maybe even Jx.

I would raise his donk prob and than decide what to do, depending on his move.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 04:20 PM
I guess I want to know why we're calling two streets if we think our only option is to bluffjam river? Shouldn't we raise earlier if we think villain will fold a weak hand to aggression? Why are we waiting until he's barreled twice (repping a stronger range, committing more of his stack to the pot).

If anything it seems to me that we rep weaker with this line than by raising flop or turn? (we're pretty nuts or busted draw here)
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jknoema83
I guess I want to know why we're calling two streets if we think our only option is to bluffjam river? Shouldn't we raise earlier if we think villain will fold a weak hand to aggression? Why are we waiting until he's barreled twice (repping a stronger range, committing more of his stack to the pot).

If anything it seems to me that we rep weaker with this line than by raising flop or turn? (we're pretty nuts or busted draw here)
I put him on a polar range and expected him to shutdown on turn, but since he'd been pretty aggr I wasn't surprized to see him 2nd barrelling... Therefore I didn't want to raise on flop because I wasn't afraid of getting into 'troubles' and felt comfortable calling down on later streets. (I'm a station, not a huge though )

And I don't care what I'm repping by choosing this line. What actually matters is how often an aggressive villain has no K after checking river...And i think villain will fold a decent probability to make this shove +EV and at least not marginal.

But I agree that my line is very thin and high varience, especially at 20s. I don't know if I'll try to avoid spots like this though ( probably not )
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-22-2010 , 09:56 PM
Fold turn.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-23-2010 , 03:26 AM
I think its not so thin, if hes betting the turn with Jx then hes probably beting river allso, when he chk river given the stacks behind, i think hes hand is more marginal/weak then strong and we should have a lot of FE if our image on the match is not bluffy.
Allso 1/2 bet size, just keep eye on that and u can find out how weak this is if made by thinking player. When he can change betsize on diffrent board types.
20$ overbet shove Quote
09-23-2010 , 05:19 AM
I dont mind the way ur thinking. i think there arent alot of value hands in his range the should be playing like this. 44 will shove pre some % if your being agro from the btn, Kx just shouldnt be dongking a huge % of the time if your cbetting all the time, Jx why donk too and potentially valuetard urself on the turn? so imo his range contains decent portion of air.

I dont mind the flop flat because he can shut down with his air and you can get to sd without alot of risk with the best hand a bunch or can hit if behind. the turn i think you need a plan... what are you thinking or doing when he ch, and when he bets/shoves? you obv think theres still a decent chance he is fos when you call. the flop is dry enough that hands like KK JJ 44 KJ are all still clearly in ur range i would see 3bar here as pretty strong (also given the fact he has the chip lead hes prolly less likely to be tilty/spewing) fwiw i dont hate the turn flat, i think his range is more polar, i think there is less Jx more Kx and some air. 3x and 4x prolly dont call all that often pre and if the do i think they will be trying to ch to sd more often than not unless theyve made 2p. I think he will most often ch the river with his air rather than spew off a third barrel when he may be crushed (obv some of his air may have paired the 7) but i also think that he can be c/c weakish Kx (or whacky Jx) which is feared up since your call call looks pretty strong. I think ch the river behind and hope to have the best hand is prolly better than giving him the oportunity to think 'he reads my river ch as weak, ima hero call'. i think shoving is also OK just lil higher risk, you will be bluffing withthe best hand alot.
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