20$ am I valueshoving too thin here?
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,779
villain is loser at 20s over 1.4k with -0.3% ROI or so, played 4k games at 5s and 10s, has okish roi there. He's def a reg, and bad. He seems to be tilting/levelling himself into stuff. He isn't particularly aggro, tho he isnt that passive, he does have a good sense of the showdown value of his hands. He is def a thinking player. And he calls fairly light in some spots.
effective stacks 1410 at 20/40
He minraises I call with KdJs
Flop (160) QhQd8h
he bets 80 I c/r to 300 and he calls.
Turn (760) Jc
hero ships 1030 and is all-in.
Worse I think that calls: JT, J9, 8x, TT, 99, some flushdraw combos, maybe some combos of KT. And there are better hands that call obviously like boats and Qx, overpairs etc., but I don't think he'd go crazy if he was floating the flop with barely a pair so there's not really a matter of keeping bluffs in his range.
Too thin?
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,779
basically trying to level him into a call with worse there.
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,906
i dont like the c/r against described villian pretty much every read you got tells me not to c/r bluff him on this kind of boards and i sure wouldnt push on the turn.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,696
sizing on the flop looks too big.
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 853
he will never call you with worse unless you have specific reads that he will so your just relying on guessing, also flop sizing is huge, im always looking to 3x in these situations where I can (usually obv for value)
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,253
I'd check the turn. If you continue betting you fold out his floats and possibly 8x/smaller PPs. He might level himself into a call here but given the read he is likely to turn a float into a bluff, or spazz out in some fashion anyways. Think checking keeps his range wide enough for him to do that stuff but overbet shoving will narrow his range too much. Also would be pretty hard for him to level into a call here with something worse though maybe not if he is really on one.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,102
Given your reads, I'd rather float the flop against this guy, especially with your hand. Alot of the time you're checkraising him with the best hand, plus if he's the type of guy to cbet and give up you can take this away a lot on the river. Also, I don't agree with you that he will float your flop raise with JT or
J9, if he's even semi decent he's folding those hands. Also, you're only repping Qx or 9T, but why would you overship those? I'd rather call or fold flop, but as played, I'd just check and see what he does on the turn. This hand looks a little FPS to me.
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,123
I like a call on the flop more than a c/r. You're ahead a lot, plus, I see no reason to inflate the pot against a lot of Qx and draws, while folding out all of his misses(which are a lot of cards.) I'm just not sure what you're trying to get value from or fold out in this hand. You start by making a huge c/r bluff with a hand that's probably the best hand, then make a value-overshove that will only get called by better it seems.
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,779
Ok I understand your points, thanks a lot. Run good makes me do weird stuff sometimes.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,285
I'm not a huge fan of the check-raise but once you get to the turn it is very likely you have the best hand, bet small/call is a more effective way to get value out of floats/bluffs.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,420
too thin?
it mostly depends on your (hero's) image, not his ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 14,295
gl trying to fold out a better hand on that flop at the 20s against a losing player. you've taken a hand where you could have outs and even SDV and that had a small pot and blown it up to a big pot OOP with K high. this is a pretty big leak imo. ok if you're playing Phil Ivery, then whatever. but against droolers - whose inability to fold when he have a big hand is why we make $$ - i don't like it.
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,779
Ok thanks everyone, this was horrible spewy fps, not gonna do it again.