I feel that check calling turn and river is -ev bec we dont have the right pot odds on either street and when I hit my hands I cant expect to get paid off VS a reg
Think we are going to get called pretty light if we chk/jam turn cause we are so weighted to combo draws or Ax. Since we chk/call the rest of our value range like Qx Kx.
So think only option is to call. Cause folding is a bit too weak too.
I agree turn call is my standard. But it is a losing call. We are getting 3:1 and if all 10outs are clean we have 21.7% equity.
If you add some bluffs to villians range it becomes about breakeven.
From villain’s perspective I am cbetting this flop with 100% of my range. But I don’t think I am barreling very often without a hand. At the $15 games
By my math check jamming flop will be plus EV 73 chips.
Based that he folds 49% time and when called we have better then 42% equity vs. a range of second pair or better.
Can some explain why check calling flop and turn will make us more money?
Turn call is not a losing call since folding is a lot worse.
Also if you know that villain never double barrels bluff turn and cbets flop 100%, you should call flop with atc that's not good enough to gii, and bluff river when villain checks back turn.
Even if villain never bluffs turn, turn call is still close compared to folding.
Yes since at 75bb check shoving flop is pretty clearly worse than check folding.
It's a bit like the other thread when you know that check shoving flop is +EV you just want to do it without thinking. Risking over 30bb to win a small pot just can't be right theoretically as part of an overall strat though.
Check calling flop is great since by having this hand in our range we can protect other hands from being barrelled to death. It would take a lot of work though to "prove" that check calling is better in a vacuum (and here I really do believe it is), since we would need to use cardrunners EV and run through some ranges on turns/rivers. So I would just say for now that to make your whole range play better, check calling is best.
Why is C/jamming the only option being discussed? I would def not C/jam. IMO this is perfect/standard spot to CR flop to 180-250 and jam any turn. Not a fan of C/C here at these stack depths vs a reg.