PokerStars - $14.39+$0.61|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 79 BB (VPIP: 61.05, PFR: 47.95, 3Bet Preflop: 25.97, Hands: 174)
Hero (SB): 71 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 5

Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 3 7 J
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn: (8 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 5.1 BB, BB calls 5.1 BB

River: (18.2 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets 11.6 BB

Villain:
VPIP OOP deep: 47%
Flat deep: 27%
Fold to flop cbet: 53%
Fold to turn cbet: ?
Flop x/r: 18%

Although my own draws missed, I can rep a flush, straight and maybe some 2p+, while Villain seems pretty capped. Good river barrel?

Turn card helps villain range overall, I don't think is a good idea to barrel it, the same can be said about river since it doesn't change texture too much, yeah you can fold missed draws but that is a small part of his range.

Why is villains range capped here?

It isn't strictly capped, but I'd expect the average player to x/r this flop or turn often with TP, I'd expect the rare straight to raise the turn often, and I often see players donk the river with a flush because they fear you check behind.

Do you agree with XXIV that this turn card isn't good to barrel? I feel like the combination of overcard to second pair, (weak) flush draw and gutshot makes it fine to barrel, even if it might hit Villain's range pretty hard.

Ok. The turn card is perhaps the card villains range is the least capped on so I was a little surprised. He will have a ton of flushes and straights on this river and maybe even more than 15% of his range is 2pair+. That is probably the reason you went for these small turn and river bets too.

It improves a lot of both players hands, so if villain does not adjust by folding more 2nd and 3rd pair hands without a draw he will be under-folding here. On the other hand you need to follow through more often to be balanced because a lot of hands improved and your exact hand is one of the better bluffs. If you bet quite polar on turn with correct value:bluff ratios then you should follow through frequently with bluffs, like 60%? There are a lot of pair+draw hands that can fold river.

What hands do you want to bet on the river for value? What bet size(s) is optimal for those hands?

What would your bet sizing be here?

I guess value bet TP+ and 2nd pair good kicker around 2/3 pot readless and maybe bet weaker Tx 1/3 pot vs recs?

Flop x/r: 18%
Turn: (8 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 5.1 BB, BB calls 5.1 BB

His flop calling range is capped, but not his turn range!

Villain will have about 5.5% flushes, 2.5% straights, 6% two pair and 16% top pair on the turn. Is that capped?

If he raises half of his flushes on the turn he will still have 5%-6% flushes on the river.

That is way too wide without a read. Even TPTK is borderline and I think you even then want to have Jc or Ac to bet.

The best bet size here, as in most multi street barrel situations, is all-inn (with 2pair+), but if many draws come in on the river a smaller bet size is often a good option (ranges will then overlap much more and you might lack bluffing hands).

Can't we assume that Villain's range mainly consists of weaker pairs and TPWK if he plays the flop and turn passively on this texture and then checks the river? I think most players will at least make one aggressive action with 2p+. That's why I don't think betting Tx good kicker is a bad play, as long as the sizing isn't too big, especially at low stakes.

Are you saying you would shove 61.9BB into a 18.2 pot with 2pair or a set on this river? Even if we would've bet flop and turn bigger, it would be a massive overbet. Don't you think you are isolating yourself against the (somewhat rare) flushes/straights and better 2pairs/sets in his range too much? I think you can get more value by not overbetting.

LOL, sry! I usually only have 1x pot to 1.7x pot bet left here. I think you want to bet around pot here for value here and it is fine to go a little smaller because villain will have a decently sized XR range here.

The numbers I gave you assumed that villain raised most sets, AJ, some KJ and 80% of 2pairs on flop. I don't think most players raise many 2pair on the turn when both flush and straight gets there and I fold most 3rd pairs on turn and weakest 2nd pair hands. So villains most likely hands on the river is top pair, 2nd-4th pair+draw hands and AcX with some showdown value.

When you bet river villain will call top pair without bad blokers, some 2nd/3rd pair with very good blockers and 2pair. XR most straights and all flushes all in. ATo has 30% equity against that range calling range. AJ has 74% and J9 has 64%. I am not sure of the amount of equity you need to valubet IP when you get called around 45% and raised 10%, but it is easy for you to calculate if you want to. It is pretty clear that no Tx can valuebet here and that J9 is also very thin.

Haha, even funnier that I seriously tried to explain why it's bad.

Assuming you min-raise, having left 1-1.7x pot otr means your standard barrel size is around pot, right? I assume you only barrel pot with value, and only vs bad players, because you don't want to balance it by potting bluffs?

Thanks. I didn't do any calculations. Seems my gut feeling was pretty off. However, I doubt that random players take blockers into account. If they don't, some strong Tx could be value bets I guess.

FWIW, in this case you can treat check-raises as calls from hands that beat you, so you simply need 60% (50+10) equity against Villain's calling range here. Villains calling% is never relevant in case of value betting.

Yes, around pot. That means i need to go much more polarized and I only bet turns 44% on average with 60% FCB.

I usually raise to 2.25x preflop, bet 62% flop, bet 85%-135% pot on turns villains range doesn't improve and less between 0.8x and 2x pot left depending on bet size and stacks. On turns like this I bet 50-66% pot. I think it is a leak to go smaller than 75% pot on cards that don't improve villains range.

I doubt he will have a "ton" of straights and flushes. Woulda heard from him on the flop(Nfd maybe even just plain FDs, would C/R with that kinda number). Two pairs are likely c/r flop too, so is a jack. That leaves alot of gutters/single card FDs, weak pairs that improved OTT.

I think this is wp, hes gonna fold alot of gutter/high club+ second/third pair kinda hands , A7 with the ace of clubs etc.

If the turn doesn't improve villain's range, don't you think a bet smaller than 3/4 pot can get him to fold often enough? Also, you might pick up a bigger pot if you bet the turn smaller and let him continue to the river with a weak range, where he will often fold to a third barrel.

I'm sure you can use any sizing on this turn. And it does improve villain's range.