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Originally Posted by Kalupso
LOL, sry! I usually only have 1x pot to 1.7x pot bet left here. I think you want to bet around pot here for value here and it is fine to go a little smaller because villain will have a decently sized XR range here.
Haha, even funnier that I seriously tried to explain why it's bad.
Assuming you min-raise, having left 1-1.7x pot otr means your standard barrel size is around pot, right? I assume you only barrel pot with value, and only vs bad players, because you don't want to balance it by potting bluffs?
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When you bet river villain will call top pair without bad blokers, some 2nd/3rd pair with very good blockers and 2pair. XR most straights and all flushes all in. ATo has 30% equity against that range calling range. AJ has 74% and J9 has 64%. I am not sure of the amount of equity you need to valubet IP when you get called around 45% and raised 10%, but it is easy for you to calculate if you want to. It is pretty clear that no Tx can valuebet here and that J9 is also very thin.
Thanks. I didn't do any calculations. Seems my gut feeling was pretty off. However, I doubt that random players take blockers into account. If they don't, some strong Tx could be value bets I guess.
FWIW, in this case you can treat check-raises as calls from hands that beat you, so you simply need 60% (50+10) equity against Villain's calling range here. Villains calling% is never relevant in case of value betting.