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Old 09-09-2017, 06:15 AM   #1
prophotovision
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$15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

After flop call our opponent range consist roughly from 55 FD, ~100 Qx, ~50 GS, some weak Ax, and 16 double gutters. I assume he would raise his 9 two pair combs. My questions are:
1. Do we ever folding his Q+ reasonable kicker with river shove (Does it make sense to shove our Ax?)
2. Should I reduce turn bet sizing to say 45% to get better SPR for river shove?
3. Given his defend flop range what are the best|worst rivers to bluff shove?

Please share your general thoughts about this hand

PokerStars - 15/30 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 22.23 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 41.67, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (SB): 27.77 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 4

Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) A Q 8
BB checks, Hero bets 1.87 BB, BB calls 1.87 BB

Turn: (7.73 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 5.17 BB, BB calls 5.17 BB

River: (18.07 BB, 2 players) 7
BB checks, Hero bets 18.73 BB and is all-in, fold,
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Old 09-09-2017, 01:54 PM   #2
none888
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

If you believe he is folding here hand like QT, than you can barrel 100% of your air, also even if he calls most of Qx hands there seem to be enough air hands you are folding out, also 8x is folding river, and if you think he does not have two pairs, I guess bluffing anything is good, even if he calls all of his Qx, that would be stationary type of fish, than he likely also calls turn barrel much looser, with hands like KJ, KT and there is more air you fold out otr, actually thinking about it, you prob should barrel 100% of your air, there just isnt anything he can call, besides some rivered 2 pairs and Qx.
I guess the worst river is a diamond as it completes flushes.
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Old 09-10-2017, 04:26 PM   #3
FoldOnce
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

It's bad to play this way for so many reasons.

a) Population plays fit or fold on that texture. When called you know they have something. Why are you trying to make a random low stakes player fold made hands?

b) You want to reduce variance in these games. At best, this play is pushing a small edge. People are so focused on perfect play in a vacuum. They fail to realize that waiting for bigger edges actually improves your long term winrate. You can't exert an edge over a less skilled opponent if you are out of the tournament.

c) That runout isn't particularly scary for an ace or queen. Expect a random low stakes player to look you up with Qx frequently.
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Old 09-10-2017, 08:49 PM   #4
Duncelanas
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldOnce View Post
It's bad to play this way for so many reasons.

a) Population plays fit or fold on that texture. When called you know they have something. Why are you trying to make a random low stakes player fold made hands?
I think the key idea here is something like "they don't have Ax." In this spot if villain is good (or strange) enough to call our bet/bet/jam with like Q5, good for them. Mostly I would expect guys to fold weak Qx and worse, though.

Quote:
b) You want to reduce variance in these games. At best, this play is pushing a small edge. People are so focused on perfect play in a vacuum. They fail to realize that waiting for bigger edges actually improves your long term winrate. You can't exert an edge over a less skilled opponent if you are out of the tournament.
Not really. We want to maximize our hourly, not our winrate.

Quote:
c) That runout isn't particularly scary for an ace or queen. Expect a random low stakes player to look you up with Qx frequently.
Maybe Q9+, but again, they usually don't have Ax here. That's not that many combos tbh. If you're playing a trappier fish who actually might have Ax and more 2p combos here, it becomes a bit worse.

I don't really feel like this line is necessary, but painting it as being horribly bad is clearly incorrect here. Going pretty wild on these A hi boards into capped ranges is pretty good sometimes.
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Old 09-11-2017, 03:36 AM   #5
none888
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldOnce View Post
It's bad to play this way for so many reasons.

a) Population plays fit or fold on that texture. When called you know they have something. Why are you trying to make a random low stakes player fold made hands?
Thing is even if he is playing fit or fold you just have to bluff river, because there are ton of hands which folds, and we have 4 high and made hands are not that big part of his range + villain will fold also made hands which makes bluffing very good.

Better question is if bet bet bet is best line?
Like bet check bet also seems ok line, only downside we let him bluff his missed draws on the river but i have no idea how often thy will actually do it.
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:07 AM   #6
tesla79
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

I like the 3 barrel, but I'm not sure in the sizing.

Facts:
- we have more Ax in our range
- for that small flop cbet, villain will calls all:
Qx, 8x, diamonds, hearts, draws

I believe he will call with most of cards which I have just outlined.
So we have to decide OTT: 3 barrel or check (fold). But I would hate check/fold since we have a FD.

I think villain will push back lighter against bigger bets, because maybe he can feels if he can't do call/fold for that big price.

So maybe I prefer 40%,40%,60%.

What do you think guys?
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Old 09-18-2017, 07:48 AM   #7
Duncelanas
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

Quote:
Originally Posted by tesla79 View Post

I think villain will push back lighter against bigger bets, because maybe he can feels if he can't do call/fold for that big price.

So maybe I prefer 40%,40%,60%.

What do you think guys?
??? You're not gonna bet 40% ott with your Ax (I hope), so where's your value?
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Old 09-19-2017, 05:27 AM   #8
tesla79
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

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Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
??? You're not gonna bet 40% ott with your Ax (I hope), so where's your value?
Hmm. I'm not sure to being unbalanced is a problem here. I mean vs. a fish or a weak reg.

So yeah, maybe if I want to get a call from Qx, bet something 60/60/30-40%. Maybe I leave some chips for him to continue the game, because I think it is a misunderstood factor of the game. I mean maybe he think this is a good call, because he can continue the game.

...and on the flipside if we can bet bigger OTR and we can threaten his whole stack OTR, I believe he folds more.

Do you think it is nonsense?
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Old 10-06-2017, 01:19 AM   #9
Mirikrom
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Re: $15 Spin&Go bluff 3 streets vs capped(?) range

when you put less chips into pot before just to overshove river in order to gain in fold equity in general you shoot you into feet yourself, as:
a) you create unfavorable spr for your bluff to be profitable for you. in general is difficult to have profitability of bluff in spins when betting above 0,7 of pot by river (you can check it with equilab to verify if I am not wrong). and here his calling range is pretty static and is very difficult to predict fi he even adjust different sizing when he is fish.
b)by betting small on early streets you do not tell story of your "strong hand"

btw.. he can have an weak A there which he just call (more often than bottom pair which he would often fold already on T)
I would just check back T for realize equity and not looking high variance 3 barrel here vs fish as we would mostly fold only missed gs and draws + sometimes weak Qx.

all above is vs fish and even weak reg.
vs good reg I would create 3 barrel bluff as you do, probably still not betting more than 0.7 in general and playing rather with frequency of this pattern.

Last edited by Mirikrom; 10-06-2017 at 01:25 AM.
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