$15 hyper - river sizing with 2pair - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$15 hyper - river sizing with 2pair

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03-30-2017 , 04:33 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Readless. His cbet sizing in combination with his turn check seems to be very 8x-7x-heavy. Is there enough Qx in a random's 75% pot cbetting range to bet the river big? Or should we make it around 90 into 200 to mainly get value from his 8x?

PokerStars - 10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 25 BB
Hero (BB): 25 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 3

Hero checks, SB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero checks, SB checks

River: (10 BB, 2 players) Q

[color=red]Hero bets ?

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03-30-2017 , 05:20 PM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

people dont fold pairs so easy, especially after turn went check/check, Id go for at least pot bet all day

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03-30-2017 , 08:31 PM

trent32la

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,476

I'm making it 6bb w/ my entire betting range.

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04-05-2017 , 09:25 AM

Axif

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 692

Quote:

Originally Posted by none888

people dont fold pairs so easy, especially after turn went check/check, Id go for at least pot bet all day

Wow, very good thinking process.

Shud incorporate this into my strat

Ty, sir

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04-05-2017 , 12:58 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

I really doubt 8x would call a pot-sized river bet close to enough here, let alone an overbet. Or do you think villain still has enough Qx to value bet large against?

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04-05-2017 , 01:33 PM

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,340

Valuecutting yourself going 6bb here. I don't know if I'd go pot here, but I'd definitely be betting at least 7.5 or 8bb with my value range.

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04-05-2017 , 01:50 PM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

Its not that much, if we assume he has exacly 8x here and always calls 1/2 pot bet, he must fold to pot size bet 50%+ to make betting 1/2 pot better.
Pot sized bet imo gets called at least 50% of the time with 8x, so Id say potting river is much better than betting 1/2 pot. Also if you think they fold 50%+, than you should pot bet all your air here, + you miss value when he has Qx, and also I think 9x is def calling 50%+ vs pot bet

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04-05-2017 , 02:17 PM

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Seems like my assumptions are off then. I'd assume 8x is calling a pot-sized bet closer to 30-40% than 50-60%, and I assume 9x is rarely checking the turn, plus Qx isn't in his river starting range often given his flop sizing and blocker effects.

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04-05-2017 , 02:27 PM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

yeah, 9x seems very unlikely, but anyway I dont think fish fold 8x so easy after cbetting and checking turn back, also you will get calls sometimes from other random hands, like AK, AJ, 66, some 7x, its kinda hard to estimate how often people would fold 8x otr, because we dont know when he folds, but I believe big sizing will be much better than smaller

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04-05-2017 , 02:40 PM

#10

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,340

Yeah, you'll defintiely get looked up here more than you might expect after turn goes check check.

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04-06-2017 , 01:41 AM

#11

Axif

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 692

Very interesting, None

Something to think about. Thx

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04-08-2017 , 04:24 AM

#12

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

out of curiosity checked gto solution for this hand and indeed Q7 chooses either check or pot bet, and SB is supposed to fold 8x 70% of the time and should fold even some Qx hands, and if I set SB to call just a little bit of 8x, and all Qx, it pot bets Q7 basically always, so I think we definitely lose ev by betting small on the river

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04-08-2017 , 04:38 AM

#13

obbudsman

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,472

Thanks none!

Verstuurd vanaf mijn SM-G935F met Tapatalk

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