Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
 HUSNG: How thin?  HUSNG: How thin?

10-12-2011 , 05:40 AM
Villain has played 154 games and has a 56 ability w/ profit and and Av.Roi not opted-in on Sharkscope.

This is really early into the match so I think stats are pretty irrelevant, and no spots have arisen as yet to judge villains tendencies etc. He had just lost nearly 1/2 of his stack w/ A7 v. my AQ on 6JA36. My instincts tell me he is a fish.

I'm relatively inexperienced in HUSNG's, and wanted to know if this was too thin?

I suppose the only two pair he can have OTR, when taking this line, is J9. All two pairs OTF and OTT surely would have already raised. I'm pretty sure he would donk the straight OTR; J10, 910, 810 etc.

FWIW I did end up betting 1/2 pot: $250.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $14.29 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10805182

Hero (SB): 2,120 (106 bb)
BB: 880 (44 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 8
Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20

Flop: (80) J 2 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 60, BB calls 60

Turn: (200) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 150, BB calls 150

River: (500) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote
10-12-2011 , 06:03 AM
I think that if you check behind you miss some value.
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote
10-12-2011 , 06:16 AM
I think if he had flush he would've donkbetted the river because he'd be too scared that you'll check behind. If I wanted to bet on this spot I'd probably bet at least 350/all-in to make them sweat with their T which I don't find them usually folding here so I don't love to bet here but I guess you can, I find checking better especially because you are not really getting any value from hands that you have beaten and your bluff equity is imo really small here because I don't ever find villain really folding T here with these stack sizes.

So long story short; I find this too thin and you are turning your hand into a bluff in a spot where your fold equity is kind of minimal and vs the hands that have you beaten plus you have a great showdown value but I don't see any betting value here really.
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote
10-12-2011 , 06:21 AM
I check behind.

In my opinion people often check their straight here.
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote
10-12-2011 , 06:32 AM
At the $15 HUSNGS there are many players who make a ton of fundamental mistakes (call ATC OOP,call extremely light postflop,slowplay big hands in very drawy boards.....) .

Readless I wouldnt be sure that villain lead his str8 on the river.there are many one diamond type hand with a ten that call flop with the flush draw (KdTh,AsTd....)
He also can have a better two pair type hand,as you said ,like J8,J9 or even 89 with one diamond that had a flush draw and a gutter on the flop ,turn a pair,and make two pairs on river.

you also have to consider what he is thinking about your range?
You raise preflop and fire on a 3 to flush board two close to pot bets.Will he call with one pair type hand on this board a third bet?

That said,betting river extract value from a Jx hand that decide to bluff catch on the river.Any other hand that will call 3 barrells on that board has us beat.
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote
10-12-2011 , 02:09 PM
Always check behind. The is no hands he can call with, that we beat. Risk/reward ratio is very bad in betting
 HUSNG: How thin? Quote

      
m