^^
tnx for the answer, posted before I had a chance to read your post , I'll leave it anyways

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What I mean is that flatting puts us in a difficult spot on the flop

if we miss the flop, what do we do?

if we hit second/ third pair what do we do, we shove , call him down , call one bet and see the turn...? why would u put yourself in position to make that decisions and easily be wrong.

As he is cbeting very wide we can check/raise many flops if we miss.

Why would you make an incorrect decision and allow your opponnent to take your chips away without contest? We can't just make one incorrect decision to avoid the possibility of making another one. We need to be constantly exploiting every mistake we think our opponent is making, your edge is just too low in a ST to let even the smallest error go unpunished. Worse than that though you cannot just allow your opponent to exploit you by letting him raise a bunch ip and and be aggressive otf forcing you into nitting up to wait for a strong hand, you have got to go after the weaknesses in his ranges wherever they exist.

Yeah, I know that u are right, I just have trouble incorporating that into my play.
Guess I'm a nit by nature.

Hes opening 85% which is waay more than the avg opponent does so eventhough he is 4betting more handcombos i think we will get folds relatively more often than against an unknown opponent.

How did you get the .4bb number?

I agree with all the other things u said, good post!

For the same reason we play a lot of weak hands, as you get better post-flop you can over time get good results with weak hands than -1bb when u fold.

theres like no way folding pre is terrible 68o is a a top 70% hand, folding 48o preflop is standard. the ev of calling 68o can't be that high

If the only info you have is that he opens close to 90%, I def favor 3-betting.

sure i agree,but "HUD popped up a little bit late, otherwise i might have considered 3betting"

It's terrible given the information we have on this opponent, and its terrible given what we know about population tendencies at this level. The ev from playing the hand doesnt need to be good, only >-1bb/100. Aside from that 68o and 48o aren't really comparable hands.
Like just given his opening frequency, even if he were calling ludicrously wide at this depth (27% of hands) or something it would be better to jam than to fold.

what would be comparable, 64o?

you're only going to be >-1bb/100 if you play 68o well enough post flop and given the read of super aggressive but i know nothing apart from my hud I dont' think thats guarenteed. and we have no information on our opponeant other than some hud stats that popped up too late

Oh, I missed that in the OP. Also, I don't know how many hands were played, so I prolly prefer the flat here as well. The prior hands leading to this, would help with the decision.

shouldn't 84o be played if folding 86o is terrible? I guess it depends on your definition of terrible.

84o and 86o interact with flops in fairly different ways. I think the only problem in playing 84o is how exploitable it would make your ranges, given what we know about villain its definitely playable. fwiw terrible may be too strong of a word

3betting 64o is likely a great option in this case.

86o is too strong to 3bet against a 90% opener unless hes really bad in 3bet pots imo

funny, I'd say that c/r is the only option here, and c/c is terrble

Too strong? What hands would you 3-bet vs a 90% open?

I agree that we should not have a c/c range here if we don't have Ax in our range.

i understand the reasons for c/r and not having a c/c range, but this is a 15$ HT. you think it's important that we don't have Ax in our range here? you think it's likely we get shoved over alot "because he can't have A in his range!"?

edit: or flat c/r to ship turn, which i would call to "advanced" for a 15s player.

@ h1nt and Krumb: Do you think it's a mistake to c/c in a $15 game given what we know about our opponent? I mean if you're not getting played back at ALOT when you c/r but villain is likely to have a fairly high, albeit unknown and likely not incredibly high or even as high as it should be, barreling frequency do you think it is still better to c/r?

doesn't it make it better to CR on the flop, knowing that at that point (the flop) i have the most information on my opponent? I know he is opening 88%, including some endgame play, so it could well be he is opening every first button. cbetted all 5 flops so far, so will definitely cbet this A high flop. So basically he has Ax only like 10% of the time, we are very likely in front and he might think we are full of it when we CR.

Another option is to check/call and pick of his barrels, but i don't know if he will triplebarrel with air here, or on what kind of boards he would slow down etc. If he would assure me on flop he would continue to bet with his hand, no matter which cards are coming, it will probably be more profitable just to check/call all the way, but we don't know.

The thing is, it doesn't matter if this is true or not, folding out his air is a good result. If our hand is face up as 6x(or villain believes this to be true), then vs any reasonable turn betting strat we are better off c/r the flop. Unlike H1nt or Borg, I believe both options will be close readless, but I do favor a c/r because I do think most regs will play fairly well on the turn vs our range.

It depends on what you mean by fairly high. If he barrels too much, then yea, I agree with c/c. I am not really sure we have that info tho, OP seems to be unsure.

we are faced against someone w/ pfr 88% and high cbet %
he's kinda aggro
our c/r looks very bluffy, I'd play hand the same way and would snap called his turn shove

the problem in c/c'ing is giving him realise his equity on later streets. and if he's good, then he will v'bet his pair (for example he holds T9o and catches his ten)

I'm surprised you would snap call a turn bet, but i agree with the rest

why would u be surprised? we rep a missed bluff