V is badreg / semi-fish. Limps about 40% range, minraise about 40% range. Thus VP/PFR = 80/40

Hand #1
Poker Stars $14.69+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 1928935
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: t500 25 BBs
Hero (BB): t500 25 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with K T
BTN/SB raises to t40, Hero calls t20

Flop: (t80) 9 K 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t20, Hero raises to t80, BTN/SB calls t60

Turn: (t240) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t80, Hero calls t80

River: (t400) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t300 all in, Hero calls t300 all in

I bet around 80 on the turn. We are obviously not folding and still get value from hands like JT, QJ, possibly Ax, lower PP that will check back ott.
Also i don't see any of those hands turned into a bluff and i'm guessing you check to let him bet air? Which is think is a very small% of his range here.

Not an hyper expert, but what's the point in a flop x/r here?? Even if it's correct, why so big?

Id check/raise to 70, bet this turn around 90-95, and jam river.
tigerjack obv for value from gutshots, Kx, pps, Ax.

IDK, it seems too thin.
I mean, a lot of his weak SDV (at least at this level) will fold to a x/r + b + b a lot, so we valuetowning ourselves only vs his better hands in this way, isn't it?
I surely flat this vs fish and depends on his tendencies/board texture i'll x turn + bet river if he misses turn cbet or lead out turn + bet river.

It can be an ok spot to x/r vs reg who can spew alot of his air/weak sdv on this flop, but I still can't see any point in x/r here vs fish.

But surely I'm wrong, so enlighten me

what you're implying is that people are hyper exploitable on this flop and we should be c/r 100% as a bluff. we are right in the middle of a very narrow value range we can have here and villain will cbet this board close to 100%.

if he just folds everything worse we will still show a huge profit from cr anyways, but as others said, he will definitely call worse hands. for instance he will never fold any K.

i agree though that t70 might be better, the smaller we go the more likely he is to play back at us and also he will float a wider range. maybe even t60 is sufficient because our equity is kinda hot/cold.

Would be nice to have more than preflop stats on villain for this hand.

As played I fold the river. I think he's nearly always checking back A high, a pair, or a J on the turn, so what's he betting with? Best case scenario when he's betting for value is we're splitting with another K, other than that there are all kinds of 9s and straights, even KJ that are completely within reason.

Against someone who's opening 40% I think you're just crushed on this board. Even assuming he's bluffing 100% of his air (i.e. hands worse than A high), I don't think you're good 30% of the time given a reasonable choice of that 40% opening range.

The only thing that makes me a little suspicious is the best sizing; seems like he would make a slightly bigger bet on the turn with a value hand so that his river bet wouldn't be so scary. That said, after you call the turn I think he's giving up on at least some of his bluffs.

Maybe it's a leak, I ever play for pot control on this kind of board vs fish.
Vs reg, I know, there are a lot of dynamics and x/r is surely +EV, but vs fish I thought we overvaluate our hand by x/r.
I don't know, do you think fishes at 15's it's capable of call 3 barrells with pp or Ax?

I'm getting only 24% folds to c/r on paired flops, and it's sizable raises(usually shove or sized to shove good turn). Snap c/r for value imo.

Do you give fish more credit for barelling down paired boards with air as opposed to calling down light? Especially with such betsizing?

I don't think it's a right reason tbh. If what worries us is his air, x/c flop is best, cause he folds all his air OTF vs our raise and at the same time we don't give him the chance to improve to the second best hand on further streets or bluffs.

What worries us is his weak SDV + weak draws and in this context I can understand a x/r.