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 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn?  HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn?

09-23-2010 , 11:49 PM
Villain seems a decent HU player, and both of us have been rather tight preflop, especially out of position (button raises 3x and BB folds).

The first hand I got dealt Q4s, raise 3x and he makes it rather smallish to 120. The nice odds made me call this and I also wanted to see what he does in 3-bet pot.

Poker Stars $11.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): t1500 75 BBs
BB: t1500 75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 4 Q
Hero raises to t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60

Flop: (t240) 6 3 8 (2 players)
BB bets t220, Hero folds

Yeah, he nearly pot bets and I had to fold of course. Can't be too sure, but I felt like (from future hands as well) he was trying to protect his weak-make hands like A8, 77, 99 like that.

He 3-bet me again in a few hands, this time to 220. Based on experience this is usually a big ace or big pair rather than small-medium pairs, and I fold my A2o without much hesitation.

Other than that, not too much wild spots. Most pots have been taken down preflop, and if not, on the flop by c-bettor. He checked all the way in position w/ JTo on K836T board; he folded when I donk bet the turn on 736ss 2s board.

Now comes this spot. So my thought line is as following:

a) He 3-bet rather smallish again, which indicates his range might be towards low-medium pp or suited connectors, prolly not big cards (or pairs).

b) His flop bet looks weakish (compared to that in the first hand), which made me think he doesn't really like that flop. Sure, he might be inducing with a set of deuces or reluctant to fold his 99 or TT, but I really doubt he has AK, KQ or that sort of hands. I almost folded, but thought I could float once here. An ace on the turn, I will certainly bet; another K or J would be good for me too.

c) Turn comes 5, and he suddenly 2/3-pot bets. This seems like either 1) a second barrel w/ hands like 99 or TT, or Jx that just didn't put me on a King (which I don't have anyway); or 2) slowplayed monsters like 22. This turn card is rather harmless and doesn't change the situation a whole lot: it should almost never help my opponent, although it gives me some outs.

So I thought if he believes he was behind and I make a move here, he might find a fold here, especially because I have been playing tight-ish and this is my first time to raise POSTFLOP, thus he will likely give me some credit. I didn't want to shove because it will look like a (semi-) bluff, and make it to 900.

Do my thoughts have any serious leaks and/or flaws? Any inputs would be much appreciated.


Poker Stars $11.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): t1340 44.67 BBs
BB: t1660 55.33 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with A 5
Hero raises to t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60

Flop: (t240) J K 2 (2 players)
BB bets t150, Hero calls t150

Turn: (t540) 5 (2 players)
BB bets t360, Hero raises to t900
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-23-2010 , 11:52 PM
In retrospect, 150 into 240 pot is certainly not weakish in general, but compared to the first hand where he nearly full-potted it, this seemed much weaker.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-23-2010 , 11:57 PM
Give up on the turn most of the time. From your description he doesn't seem like much of a double barreller Oop and you just have to believe him at that point.

You didn't see what he min 3bets with? Don't assume it's gambling hands (like small PPs or SCs) more often I saw that being hands like QJo or A5s or such.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 12:00 AM
A5o plays crappy postflop, you depend too much on flopping 2pair+, folding and instead defending suited or connected cards which you can semibluff should be better imo

On the flop he did 62% potbet so it's not that weak imo.I'd rather raise him on the flop instead of the turn. Once he 2barrels I give up :/
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 12:05 AM
Hmm, but if he had QJ (or other Jx), his bet on the turn would be a thin one since I flat called on the flop, which I doubt he would make all that easily. He didn't bet the river-ed second pair w/ JTo on K836T board. And if it's an ace, I have a decent equity as he would 3-bet bigger w/ AJ or AK, and I am not fearing A2 for obvious reasons

Just curious, does his line look really strong? It looked rather weakish to me, but I might have a serious leak and/or lack of experience.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kismetdog
A5o plays crappy postflop, you depend too much on flopping 2pair+, folding and instead defending suited or connected cards which you can semibluff should be better imo

On the flop he did 62% potbet so it's not that weak imo.I'd rather raise him on the flop instead of the turn. Once he 2barrels I give up :/
Oh, I didn't think of this. But he's laying a nice odd (1:3) and I don't think I will be dominated all that much if I flop an ace, since most players would make a bigger 3bet w/ big ace. Hmm, is the call really bad?
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 12:42 AM
Yeah flatting A5o is fine here
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 02:52 AM
Hes milking u, i like the bet when villain ck to me and shove any river if ck.

edit: allso i think flop fold is +EV

Last edited by Haluebet; 09-24-2010 at 03:11 AM.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 03:01 AM
meh, in all likelihood he is a bad player so I don't know why you would want to risk your stack in spots like this. I would flat the A5o and just play fit or fold on the flop. Also, I don't agree with your assumption in a). Depending on villain, these small 3 bets could be anything from the nuts to hands like K9hh or 44.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 04:53 AM
You can pretty much assume villain sucks when he tard 3bets you. He is giving you odds preflop to call profitably with any two, plus you have position. As played, I would just fold flop, unless you think his tard3bet range is wide enough that he's bluffing a lot of the time, in which case a small raise would be ok. Readless, just fold.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 04:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by palinca
meh, in all likelihood he is a bad player so I don't know why you would want to risk your stack in spots like this. I would flat the A5o and just play fit or fold on the flop. Also, I don't agree with your assumption in a). Depending on villain, these small 3 bets could be anything from the nuts to hands like K9hh or 44.
I agree. In 3bet pots I'm usualy folding to cbets if I don't hit, Obv not always, but in this case I would.
As played I don't see him as a villain who barrels twice as a bluff.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 06:58 AM
Leak = overthinking. You don't know what that raise means, you don't know what his betsizing means...so just chill out. Flat ATC pre IP w sick odds. I would call most flops where I had equity (str8, 5, A), and then look to bink turn w implied odds or bluff some rivers/turns.

Keep it simple. Sounds like you just need to play more 3bet pots to get comfy with them.
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote
09-24-2010 , 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mela
a) He 3-bet rather smallish again, which indicates his range might be towards low-medium pp or suited connectors, prolly not big cards (or pairs).
I don't agree here (in general), and you did not see showdown hands of previous 3bets. So no reason to eliminate big cards from his possible holdings imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mela
b) His flop bet looks weakish (compared to that in the first hand), which made me think he doesn't really like that flop.
Again, I don't agree. His nearly potbet the previous time looked to be designed to scare you away. As a bluf, or to protect his hand. But do you think he would pot here with a hand like KQ? No, in that case he wants you to call, he wants value. I can definately see him bet 150 here with TPGK or something similar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mela
c) Turn comes 5, and he suddenly 2/3-pot bets. This seems like either 1) a second barrel w/ hands like 99 or TT, or Jx that just didn't put me on a King (which I don't have anyway); or 2) slowplayed monsters like 22. This turn card is rather harmless and doesn't change the situation a whole lot: it should almost never help my opponent, although it gives me some outs.
Why can't he just have a K again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mela
So I thought if he believes he was behind and I make a move here, he might find a fold here, especially because I have been playing tight-ish and this is my first time to raise POSTFLOP, thus he will likely give me some credit. I didn't want to shove because it will look like a (semi-) bluff, and make it to 900.
Just a question: Did you think about what hand you represent here? What hand would you raise preflop + call a smaal 3bet, call this flop and raise this turn with? Or did you base your play entirely on your assumption of his hand?
 HUSNG, okay to bluff this turn? Quote

      
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