Bovada Poker $10 HU SNG (Regular blind structure). Blinds were at the 2nd level (15/30)



This was the second game I had played against the villain. The first game I had won rather easily, with a combination of good hands and an opponent that seemed very weak and readable. I will break down the tendencies I had seen in him so far as follows.

He seemed easy to bluff when he missed the flop & don't recall any instances of him playing back at me with nothing after I had bet.

When he did catch a hand however (middle pair or better), he did not seem capable of making a tough laydown.

He played pretty straight forward preflop (limping or folding weak hands on the BTN, and raising is better hands 3x the BB)

He seemed overly tight preflop at first (folding his BTN alot & giving up to small raises after he had limped), but seemed to have loosened up significantly after he lost the first game, possibly due to tilt.

He C-bet alot of flops, and in the hand bellow, I feel he is highly likely to shove AI with a variety of hands if I check to him on the flop.

Hero (BB) $1900
Villain (BTN) $1100

Hero is dealt AJ

Villain raises to 90, Hero re-raises to 300, Villain calls 210

Flop (pot = 600) 710Q

Hero?

As mentioned above, if I check to him I believe he will shove his last 800 chips in with a variety of hands (I would estimate any Q, any 10, any open ended or gutshot straight draws, any flush draws, and possibly some total bluffs as well). If I bet I would estimate he folds anything weaker than a 10.

Also, I am wondering if I should have 3-bet with the AJ in the first place. This is a pretty standard play for me HU with AJ when I get raised in the BB. However, with someone this predictable, it may be better to just call and focus on outplaying him postflop. Even though I feel I lose some value by not raising, b/c I think he is calling with many weaker hands, it may not be worth it to play a big pot where luck can be more of a factor.

Your thoughts?

poor 3bet sizing given stacks. the janekaaa in me wants to just flat pre against an overly predictable player and play from there. if you 3bet, i think making it much smaller is the way to go. it enables him to flat wider (any read on his reaction to 3bets would help), and it enables you to play multiple streets against a predictable player in a larger pot even if its oop. janekaaa angel is on my right shoulder though highlighting how 3x's tend to be stronger and why raise get it in with AJo against this player with this info. your hand is playable and has disguised strength (but i think you can discount the importance of this vs said player since it's less likely he'll play back at you/call you down more lightly). i probably change my tampon and flat pre.

noticing his tendencies is the right way to go, but in the end what matters are frequencies. you mentioned that he has a limping and a 3xing range so that we can probably ignore the possibility of him adjusting the raise size to his handstrength.

that said, we can only guess his opening frequency, which is really relevant for the decision. most likely though you will want to 3bet, because you are only 35bb deep so there is tons of value to be gained. stacking off Ax easier when flatting is counteracted by getting more value preflop from lower Ax, which is more relevant imo because when both players have Ax an A comes on the flop only ~12%.