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10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r 10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r

07-22-2013 , 07:10 AM
I have some history playing with this V. Guy is a bit tricky - 3bets pre 30% of his holdings / calling 30% pre. On flop his c/r frequency is high - 50% - i catched him on c/r bluffs on dry boards (he folded to reraise) - K82o / 842o / J72o.

I`d like to ask for optimal play for this hand. He is probably not bluffing but i tryed to use some equilab and put his on range. You can find screens below the hand. If i lean on match i think the best decision is shove to his c/r. Please pay attention on villians range - any critical remarks? Thanks for suggestions!

Full Tilt - $10Heads-Up|20/40 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 1,220
BB: 1,780

Hero posts SB 20, BB posts BB 40

Pre Flop: (pot: 60) Hero has J T

Hero raises to 80, BB calls 40

Flop: (160, 2 players) 8 9 2
BB checks, Hero bets 90, BB raises to 280, Hero ????





Calculations : 1050 / 2440 = 0,43
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-22-2013 , 03:17 PM
jam not jelly
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-22-2013 , 06:05 PM
Any thoughts about V range?
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-22-2013 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borell
Any thoughts about V range?
You already did it.

You need 35% to call this but best play is shove to his c/r imo o avoid harder decisions on turn and river.
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-22-2013 , 07:28 PM
I agree with what someone said in another thread, you can cbet half pot there.
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-23-2013 , 02:49 AM
Go all in. You have such huge equity even vs some of the best hands in his range, and clearly you have a lotttt of FE. Folding is a disaster.
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-23-2013 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisher04
You already did it.

You need 35% to call this but best play is shove to his c/r imo o avoid harder decisions on turn and river.
35%? How u count this?
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-23-2013 , 05:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borell
35%? How u count this?
Pretty sure you need 26%. 190 into 720 pot.
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote
07-23-2013 , 06:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borell
35%? How u count this?
Money you have to pay / (Pot + Villains bet)
=> 190 / 250 + 280=0,358 ~ 36%

If you only call your effective stack will be 860 and pot after the call 720 and you have to remember that amount you pay (190) might be price for one card.

So if we think you just call and you get c/r on turn you can't fold because now you are commited to pot. We have 8 outs on the flop + overs and we have chance to get more on the turn if card is spade.

We calculate with 14 outs and assume we see both turn and river.
14 * 4 = ~56% our hand will get better.

We can also calculate within 8 outs and that will be ~ 30%

Mathematically this call isn't +EV if we have only 8 outs so just shove pls
10$ turbo OESD/OVERS/BD on tricky Villain c/r Quote

      
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