I don't want to make 2 threads since it's the same villain.

this guy is really passive and cally, will call cbets even with a single high card, and has called 2 barrels with high cards.

Hand #1
Poker Stars $10.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t1690 33.80 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1310 26.20 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with 4 4
Hero raises to t1310 all in
In this hand there wasn't a push/fold dynamic but I decided that it was the best way to play it since it would be hard doing anything postflop with 44 against someone who won't fold. But maybe it's risking too much?.


Hand #2

Poker Stars $10.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t1900 95 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t1100 55 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T K
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) 3 T 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB calls t80

Turn: (t280) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t160, BB calls t160

River: (t600) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero........?

Bet or not?. Flop is bad now that I see it since I can abuse him with a full pot bet.
Is it better to bet bigger on the turn ?

Hand 1: Eh, it's probably not terrible but I'd rather just limp here versus the described opponent. Get called down a ton when we hit a set if he's really passive we should get to showdown a decent amount. Shoving becomes more standard for me <20bb eff

Hand 2: I probably just check this river, you are splitting with all tens so there's not much value here. He has to have 22,44, 66-99 more than an ace here (and call 3 streets with it) to be getting value here.

+1 just get a cheap showdown your hand often figures to be best and if you hit the set take him to value town

Hand 2: i think bet sizing seems fine maybe id bet 180 on turn instead of 160 but if hes as cally as you say he is then i think theres possibly some value to be had out of the river w/ a 1/2 pot bet but the check behind is certainly fine too and you definatly have showdown value with a pair of tens here and i dont think the 5 changes much imo, be interesting to hear others toughts on it tho.

hand 1 you can solve yourself with pokerstove if you can just guess his calling range.

hand 2 if he is that cally prob just bet all 3 streets, with half pot bets on turn and river.

If I understand correctly, with pokerstove we can solve the shove for being +EV or -EV (Sklansky chubukov says we can shove 44 pre face up for 40 big blinds and be unexploitable, so with less BBs it should mean its better? because the shorter the stacks the better it is to open jam pairs.)

However, is it the most +EV? I thought the shove was since the way I saw it when I was playing:

1) I limp or raise, and most of the time I check down. He gets his 50% equity, with me having 0% FE. I guess I didn't consider flopping a set that much, but I can get 2-3 streets of value a high % of the time.

2) I shove, I'm flipping a large %, crushed a smaller %, and I do have FE there. But in this case, 1.5 bb isn't such a big part of my stack, as it would be if we were at the endgame, so maybe I'm risking too much

Vs a random villians holding you have 57% equity according to pokerstove:

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.023% 56.26% 00.77% 1180021110 16073849.00 { 4c4s }
Hand 1: 42.977% 42.21% 00.77% 885403592 16073849.00 { random }

however i really dont see this being a +ev play at 26bb, think about it from villians perspective, lets say he has a random hand Q7, J4, 78, hes never gonna call the shove here and you win the blinds, now say he wakes up with any pocket pair, or AJ+ hes prob gonna call so your gonna be slightly ahead at best and destroyed at worst while playing for stacks:

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.193% 38.28% 00.91% 81940346 1947029.00 { 4c4s }
Hand 1: 60.807% 59.90% 00.91% 128203596 1947029.00 { 22+, ATs+, AJo+ }

same thing kinda goes for hand 2, you shove and i cant see villian calling with worse, either check it down or a thin value bet, on thinking about it the check if prob the best option

He might be loose passive but I don't see him calling often with worse when he called the turn and I don't see him folding much here. If I'm wrong about the first point and if he can call here with air or like a small PP, then maybe you can get away with a bet. Without knowing more about him, I'd check back.

With 44 the FE makes up for the times we get it in behind. Doesn't it?

off the top of my head without working it out id imagine that its slightly +ev due to the fe we have, if villian was to only call with ATs+, AJo+ and 55+ thats 8.4% of his range meaning he's gonna be folding 91.6% of the time and you pick up the blinds, when he does call hes gonna have 65% equity so 35% of the time you can suckout/your hand holds up and you win while he wins 65% of the time, altho i think it would be +ev to shove i dont think its the optimal play at all when you could get a cheap showdown where your hand figures to be best a good % of the time, maybe someone more experianced could comment?