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1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive 1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive

10-03-2012 , 10:33 AM
Reads: villain limps 80%, doesn't raise buttons; folds to flop leads~50%; doesn't stab by himself;
At the point of the hand I didn't know if he raises his strong hands on the flop (in later hands, it turned out he wasn't, flatting 2pair on very wet flop/turn and c/minr/call shove river...on a 4straight 3flush board).

This is his very first postflop bet in the match, 12 hands in.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$1.44+$0.06

Stacks:
SB AALalaAA (400) 20bb
BB Munchking (600) 30bb

Blinds: 10/20

Pre-Flop: (30, 2 players) Munchking is BB 10 4
AALalaAA calls 10, Munchking checks

Flop: J 10 7 (40, 2 players)
Munchking bets 30, AALalaAA calls 30

Turn: J (100, 2 players)
Munchking bets 50, AALalaAA calls 50

River: 10 (200, 2 players)
Munchking checks, AALalaAA goes all-in 300, Munchking folds

My logic: bet flop for value(draws and 7x)+fold equity; very passive opponent is unlikely to bet himself. After he calls the flop, I bet turn, since I expect everything that called flop to call the turn; and there's draws/7x/pp's that either call and give value, or fold and give fold equity.
On the river I'm clueless whether to bet/fold, bet/call, check/fold or check/fold. I pretty much decided that a passive player isn't going to bluff, and if he shoves Tx or Jx, I don't have equity to call. The isn't going to bluff part is questionable, and I'm not experienced enough to be sure about that.

Bet/fold river small? Bet smaller ott to be sure that w/e called flop calls turn, so that I can bet/fold river better?

How would you play this hand?
1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive Quote
10-03-2012 , 03:59 PM
Hmm, there are missed draws on the river, and even a possibly slowplayed flopped straight.

Vill could have a Jack, but perhaps he had the other Ten.

Your flop and turn play looked fine to me. I think that I would have bet t100 on the river and called vill's shove, altho' I dont know for sure what would have been best.
1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive Quote
10-04-2012 , 08:55 PM
I wouldn't be surprised for him to show a jack based on your description of his play of relatively big hands however at these stakes I think I would just sigh and make the call. People tend to do so many random things at these stakes that I don't think you can just rule his overbet on the river as the nuts and not just a spaz, especially considering the wet texture of the board and the fact that every draw has missed by the river. I am probably betting 80-120 on the river with the intention of puke calling a shove,as played i'm probably calling this river shove.
1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive Quote
10-05-2012 , 09:25 PM
Yeah I agree with the above. Villain may have Jx given he's LP, but the amount of random spew at these levels lakes it a call imo
1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive Quote
10-06-2012 , 09:45 AM
Call. Fish usually min raise your donk on turn with the nuts. Looks like a missed draw to me or Tx.
1.5 HT double paired river vs loose passive Quote

      
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