Reads: villain limps 80%, doesn't raise buttons; folds to flop leads~50%; doesn't stab by himself;
At the point of the hand I didn't know if he raises his strong hands on the flop (in later hands, it turned out he wasn't, flatting 2pair on very wet flop/turn and c/minr/call shove river...on a 4straight 3flush board).
This is his very first postflop bet in the match, 12 hands in.
No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by
weaktight.com
$1.44+$0.06
Stacks:
SB AALalaAA (400) 20bb
BB Munchking (600) 30bb
Blinds: 10/20
Pre-Flop: (
30, 2 players)
Munchking is BB 10
4
AALalaAA calls 10, Munchking checks
Flop: J
10
7
(
40, 2 players)
Munchking bets 30, AALalaAA calls 30
Turn: J
(
100, 2 players)
Munchking bets 50, AALalaAA calls 50
River: 10
(
200, 2 players)
Munchking checks,
AALalaAA goes all-in 300,
Munchking folds
My logic: bet flop for value(draws and 7x)+fold equity; very passive opponent is unlikely to bet himself. After he calls the flop, I bet turn, since I expect everything that called flop to call the turn; and there's draws/7x/pp's that either call and give value, or fold and give fold equity.
On the river I'm clueless whether to bet/fold, bet/call, check/fold or check/fold. I pretty much decided that a passive player isn't going to bluff, and if he shoves Tx or Jx, I don't have equity to call. The isn't going to bluff part is questionable, and I'm not experienced enough to be sure about that.
Bet/fold river small? Bet smaller ott to be sure that w/e called flop calls turn, so that I can bet/fold river better?
How would you play this hand?