All, chip counts and prize pool information is available here:
http://www.wsop.com/tournaments/updates.asp
If you plug these numbers into an ICM calculator and ask it to calculate my finish distribution it says:
15.576%, 15.223%, 14,722%, 14.008%, 12.968%, 11.389%, 8.878%, 5.36%, and 1.876% - for first place down to ninth.
It calculates these numbers based on chip stacks alone.
The return to investors for each finish position is:
260%, 151%, 102%, 70%, 47%, 29.6%, 16.8%, 7.2%, 0%
Multiplying these returns by the finish distribution above gives the investors an exactly break even proposition.
Clearly I believe I have a skill edge and hence my finish distribution is better than ICM and hence this is a +EV investment for investors. I’m effectively selling at no markup.
I understand that investor ROI is quite limited here, i.e. the best case scenario is a 2.6x return. The downside is also significantly lower than when typically buying action, 84% of the time investors are going to get atleast 30% back, etc.
Basically because it’s the FT already the variance I’m transferring to investors per $1 is much smaller than when buying action at the beginning of a tourney.
So anyways, that’s the way I look at it. I’m fortunate enough where selling this action isn’t a high priority for me. Obviously I prefer to sell, and believe it’s a +EV investment for investors, or I wouldn’t have posted. But if I keep my entire 80%, that’s ok. I don’t intend to change the price I’m selling at.