Hi all,

For those not familiar with me, my name is Amir Lehavot and I’ve been fortunate enough to make this year’s FT for WSOP main.

Prior to black Friday I was mainly an MTT online player playing mostly on poker stars (some volume on FTP also) as Amirsf. My OPR stats can be viewed here:
http://officialpokerrankings.com/pok...ml?t=8&scp=114

Since BF I’ve been playing more live, though very light schedule since WSOP 2012 as my son was born Sep 2012.
My live results can be viewed here:
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=85034

I have 80% of my action going into the final table; my parents have 10% and a longtime friend and investor has the other 10%.

I am opening up 30% for sale in this thread, and I will be keeping 50%.

I’m selling at ICM, this works out to be $29,248 per 1%. This is with 9th place money already subtracted out, so for each 1% invested the investor would get 1% of my prize money minus 9th place money.

If I finish 9th, 1%=0 if I finish 3rd 1% = $29,938 if I finish first, 1% = $76,263, etc

A few useful links on ICM if you aren’t familiar with it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Chip_Model
http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

I’m setting the minimum investment at 10k.
Taking payments offline only: wire, bank xfer to BoA – or check if you mail early enough.

I’m going to be taking reserves for action until October 14, and going to finalize booked action by October 21 (so will need to receive payment by then to book action). I’ll publish final list of investors and action they are booked for at that time.
Closing this well ahead of the final table since I don’t want to deal with logistics at the last minute.
A final IMPORTANT note, for tax reasons I would need from the investors either their SSN if they are a US citizen or a ITIN number otherwise (would need either a W9 or a W-8BEN form filled, but that’s the crucial info needed). If this is not available (for example a foreign investor with no ITIN) then investor should not invest – as without this information I will need to withhold taxes from investor profits.

Thanks for your consideration, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask.
Amir

here's the chip-counts and payouts

1 Sylvain Loosli France 19,600,000
2 Michiel Brummelhuis Netherlands 11,275,000
3 Mark Newhouse USA 7,350,000
4 Ryan Riess USA 25,875,000
5 Amir Lehavot Israel 29,700,000
6 Marc McLaughlin Canada 26,525,000
7 JC Tran USA 38,000,000
8 David Benefield USA 6,375,000
9 Jay Farber USA 25,975,000


payouts (9th $ removed)

1 $7,626,307
2 $4,439,946
3 $2,993,799
break-even point
4 $2,058,758
5 $1,373,302
6 $867,568
7 $492,000
8 $211,369
9 $0

All, chip counts and prize pool information is available here: http://www.wsop.com/tournaments/updates.asp

If you plug these numbers into an ICM calculator and ask it to calculate my finish distribution it says:
15.576%, 15.223%, 14,722%, 14.008%, 12.968%, 11.389%, 8.878%, 5.36%, and 1.876% - for first place down to ninth.

It calculates these numbers based on chip stacks alone.

The return to investors for each finish position is:
260%, 151%, 102%, 70%, 47%, 29.6%, 16.8%, 7.2%, 0%

Multiplying these returns by the finish distribution above gives the investors an exactly break even proposition.

Clearly I believe I have a skill edge and hence my finish distribution is better than ICM and hence this is a +EV investment for investors. I’m effectively selling at no markup.

I understand that investor ROI is quite limited here, i.e. the best case scenario is a 2.6x return. The downside is also significantly lower than when typically buying action, 84% of the time investors are going to get atleast 30% back, etc.
Basically because it’s the FT already the variance I’m transferring to investors per $1 is much smaller than when buying action at the beginning of a tourney.

So anyways, that’s the way I look at it. I’m fortunate enough where selling this action isn’t a high priority for me. Obviously I prefer to sell, and believe it’s a +EV investment for investors, or I wouldn’t have posted. But if I keep my entire 80%, that’s ok. I don’t intend to change the price I’m selling at.

A final IMPORTANT note, for tax reasons I would need from the investors either their SSN if they are a US citizen or a ITIN number otherwise (would need either a W9 or a W-8BEN form filled, but that’s the crucial info needed). If this is not available (for example a foreign investor with no ITIN) then investor should not invest – as without this information I will need to withhold taxes from investor profits.

Don't need this info before hand, need it in the event I finish 3rd or higher only.

ICM is the best and fairest way to do this.

I don't invest in poker players anymore but if I did I would take a % as this seems very +EV to me (FWIW I've played with OP multiple times including a WSOP Final Table before)

Good Luck Amir, I'll actually see you in Vegas, will be cheering for Sylvain with all the Winamax Team... but you're my second fav

Nicolas

can you in the US deduct the amount you paid for the equity from the taxes? if you buy 10% for 300k and he cashes third for 300k, do you pay taxes on those 300k?

Thanks for the offer, but will pass.

Im friends with Amir and im actually rooting for that to happen as i think giving up equity (which he clearly is) selling isnt worth variance decrease, worst case scenario 9th place money is already a pile of cash and Amir is in a great position to make top 3

somewhat interested in this. You've got several of the big stacks to your left...which players did you play significantly with in previous tables in this tournament?

Does it have to be 'gambling' income? Is it not income in general? Why is this investment different than any other? I have no idea myself just a thought. And it might open up your potential universe if so.

The only player I played a lot with in previous tables is David Benefield.

Played maybe three levels together with Marc McLaughlin, JC Tran, and Jay Farber. Basically just down from 18 players to FT.

I'm no tax expert, my understanding is that this investment is no different than any other investment.
But my understanding is that on all investments here in the MP, the investor can not just deduct loses from just any general income, it has to be gambling income.

I'll vouch for Amir being +ev over ICM at this final table. If it didn't create a conflict of interest I would buy some.

20 posts deleted, maybe more to come

SERIOUS investors only in this thread, please

What are the blinds at?

starting at 200k/400k/50k ante with the button in seat 6

I posted a post on the statistical errors and you delete it? So only serious investors are allowed to get screwed? Most biased thread I've ever seen. I was interested but the maths minus tax does not add up? If you get first place then minus taxes etc you won't get the percentage you quote? Good luck anyway & hope you take it down.

^^^ if you think he is screwing people over, why do you hope he becomes Main Event champion?

What? If he ships 1st it's 8.3 or whatever you'd get 83k and be responsible for that tax wise

Sounds complicated. I hope you dont mind a link to actual ICM calculation, which returns your current dollar expectation with all those multiplications already performed:

http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmcalculator/#yXWm

So, according to ICM your stack is worth 3,658,046$

but he excluded 9th place from his analysis since that has already been received. You included it in your analysis.

In certain countries like Ireland and UK all gambling winnings are tax-free, just to let potential investors know that. As regards deductions and US players I think you`re mostly correct.

Indeed. So we are on a theoretical bubble, with 9th finish payout being 0$.
Here is updated calculation: http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmcalculator/#Eirj

As expected stack is worth 2,924,802$ (without that 9th finish payout 733,244$)

Every buy that exists in the marketplace has the added liability of taxes that your government does/does not impose on you. It is up to each investor to know and understand how this effects their decisions.

I didn't catch your math, but I am assuming it was deleted because you took your situation, one where buying would not be wise, and tried to apply it everyone. There are some people who could actually benefit (make money) from dropping to a lower tax bracket on an unfortunate result for Amir. Did you include those buyers in your calculations? No, you probably did not. Plus, there are many potential buyers who will not pay taxes at all on any result from this package.

reserve $15k worth will ship via bofa